American decline

The 2024 election campaign has already started, and it looks like it will get nastier than ever. The two front runners are the same as in 2020, Biden and Trump. 

On the democratic side there are basically no challengers, only a weak effort by Robert F Kennedy Junior, who seems to be trending around 10-15% of the democratic votes. He might have some support in the liberal New England states but would have little chance in the south. Biden is at this point refusing debates as they would most likely hurt him, so it looks likely that Biden will be the democratic candidate. 

On the republican side, there are more candidates, but Trump is at this point well ahead in the field. Trump has more than 50% in polls followed by Florida governor DeSantis on 16% and Ramaswamy around 10%. Given Trump’s strong and loyal grassroot following, there is little chance anyone will be able to beat him. Well known republican names like Pence, Haley and Christie are all poling around 3%. 

So most likely it will be a new presidential election between Biden and Trump. At this point, they are tied in a rematch. It looks like the country is just as divided now as it was in 2020 and there will be another close toss-up election. The rest of the world looks at the U.S. in amazement and question how it is even possible that the same two washed up candidates will run again. After all, Biden is already 80, often barely coherent and seems even older, and increasingly burdened by his son Hunter’s corruption investigations. 

Trump is also old, 77, but seems vital and full of energy, but is under intense pressure due to several indictments that potential could land him in jail for a long time. It is remarkable and embarrassing that the American voters support these two candidates. How is it possible that the parties are unable to find younger and better candidates? 

Given the heavy clouds hanging over the two main candidates, the selection of vice presidents will become very important. Some kind of minority candidates are likely, and it would be a smart move by Trump for sure. Last time he needed the conservative votes and selected Pence, but they are now firmly on Trump’s side. 

In early polls, the republicans are favored to keep the House of Representatives and they have an advantage in the senate this time around. There are 33 senators up for re-election in 2024. Only ten are republicans, three are independent, and 20 are democrats. This will favor republicans and they will likely flip the senate in their favor.

As the U.S. has exited much of its global presence with the exception of Ukraine, the perception is that the U.S. is getting weaker. There is not the same level of engagement in the Middle East, trade negotiations with Europe and China are not happening, there is less involvement in Africa and Latin America. NATO expansion and Ukraine seems to be the only American foreign policy.  

And at home, on top of the Biden Trump circus, the conservative Supreme Court is reversing accepted policies that have been in place for decades, immigrants are flooding major cities, homelessness is increasing, and crimes are rampant. For outside observers, the state of the country is a complete mess. However, the most obvious sign of the sad American decline must be the likely rematch between Biden and Trump. 

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