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The democratic party has stayed surprisingly unified during the Biden presidency. The reason might be the significant shift to the left and the party policies are more based on Bernie Sanders political principles than moderate democratic views. There are even more radical, far-left elements in the party, in particular in the house of representative, but they have so far remained loyal to the party. As a result of Israel’s relentless bombing of the Gaza strip, infighting is spreading in the democratic party, slowly but meaningfully, at every layer of the party over Biden’s full-throated support for Israel. Emotions seem to run deeper than college campus protests or comments from elected officials for support for the Palestinians.  Many liberal Jews are furious that so many progressive democrats are not more outraged by the Hamas attack on Israel, and some are even threatening to leave the party. At the same time, pro-Palestinian democrats are outraged at the rising death tolls in Gaza, north or 10,000 and increasing daily.  The Biden administration and political operation are getting tense and growing more deeply divided. Nearly 20% of the DNC’s roughly 300 employees ... Continue Reading about Democratic party headaches

The Biden administration is trying to combine war aid to Ukraine and Israel in one package, but republicans are trying to go another way by funding Israel separately. The house of representatives passed the republicans’ Israel-only aid bill to provide $14.3 billion in war aid to Israel and fund this by cutting funding to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS).  The bill passed 226 to 196, largely along party lines as twelve democrats voted with 214 republicans and two republicans joined the democrats in objecting. The lawmakers rushed to push the bill through to respond to the attack on Israel by Hamas and was the first major legislative action under new republican speaker Mike Johnson. Because it combined aid to Israel with a cut to the IRS and left out aid for Ukraine, Biden has promised to veto the bill and senator Chuck Schumer, majority leader of the democratic controlled senate, said he will not bring it up for a vote in the senate.  Biden has asked congress to approve a broader $106 billion emergency spending package including funding for Israel, Taiwan and Ukraine. It is unclear why it makes sense to bundle these three countries together as one, but Biden had ... Continue Reading about U.S. war funding

As China is getting increasingly stronger, both economically and militarily, they are getting more assertive. Pick any rogue regime or conflict in the world today and there is likely some Chinese involvement. In the conflict in Ukraine, China has openly sided with Russia and in the recent Hamas attack in Israel, China’s state media supports Hamas and declare a free Palestine must be a priority. Su Lin, a prominent Chinese influencer claimed after the attack that “Hamas is still too gentle. Israel is a Jewish version of Nazi and militarism. Such posts would be instantly removed if they contradicted the thinking of the ruling Chinese Communist Party.  Hamas brought some very advanced weaponry to Israel from Gaza, such as thermobaric rocket-propelled grenades. These weapons were manufactured in Iran or North Korea, but the underlying state-of-the-art technology like came from China. Iran’s Islamist regime has been calling for the destruction of Israel for decades, and there is little doubt that Iran helped Hamas execute the attack. China is also supporting Iran along with the military junta in Myanmar and seems determined to support any rogue state on the planet, in particular ... Continue Reading about A new world order?

A summer in which inflation trended lower, jobs remained plentiful, and consumers kept spending has bolstered confidence, not least at the Federal Reserve, that the world’s largest economy will avoid recession. However, these facts are not telling the full truth about the U.S. economy and there are numerous risk factors that might push the U.S. economy south and even into a recession.  There are ongoing political turmoil and dysfunction in Washington, a major auto strike and resumption of student loan payments. Add those issues to other forces at work on the economy such as dwindling pandemic savings to soaring interest rates, looming credit squeeze and higher oil prices. It takes a while for policy actions to have lasting sustainable economic impact. The Fed monetary policy with interest rate hikes, 525 basis points since early 2022, are finally starting to slow down inflation, even though at 3.7% it is still well above the 2% target rate. This could result in another hike before the year is over.   There are several other events impacting the U.S. economy negatively. The ongoing geopolitical conflicts in Ukraine and in the Middle East will keep costing U.S. ... Continue Reading about Recession ahead? 

Recently, Saudi Arabia told the White House it would be willing to boost its oil production early next year if crude prices are still high. This move is seen as targeting goodwill in congress for a deal in which the Saudi Arabia would recognize Israel and in return get a defense pact with the U.S.  U.S. – Saudi relations have plummeted over the last couple of years as Biden criticized Saudi Arabia and the de facto ruler, the crown prince Mohammed bin Salman, for murdering the journalist Jamal Khashoggi. At this point, the U.S. is feeling the pressure of the global commodity market and has shown willingness to work closer with the Saudis and even provide military and nuclear assistance. The price would be recognition of Israel, the U.S. key ally in the Middle East. This would be a move that could revamp the geopolitical situation and be seen as a major victory for Biden, similar to the successful Abraham Accords during the Trump administration, in which United Arab Emirates and Bahrain recognize Israel’s sovereignty, enabling the establishment of full diplomatic relations.  The situation might have changed after Hamas recent attack on Israel and the ongoing war. Most ... Continue Reading about Saudi oil