Next steps for U.S. Ukraine support
The recent house of representatives’ vote on the bills that provided $95 billion assistance to Israel, $26 billion, Ukraine, $61 billion, and Taiwan, $8 billion, provided yet another round of money for U.S. conflicts against Hamas and Palestine, Russia and against China. The conflicts are different in nature and the U.S. send funds to Israel every year regardless, around $4 billion, given the strong connection between Israel and the U.S. The $26 billion is extra money to deal with Hamas.
The Biden administration in recent days quietly authorized the transfer of bombs and fighter jets to Israel despite Washington’s concerns about an anticipated military offensive in southern Gaza that could threaten the lives of hundreds of thousands of Palestinian civilians. Biden’s main concern is likely that he will lose Arab-American votes in swing states. The power of the military-industrial complex and the Jewish lobby is too powerful to reduce U.S. military support to Israel. Some even argue that Joe Biden is part of the Israeli genocide of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. This might be true, but the history of Israeli repression of Palestinians and the development of a de facto apartheid system goes back to the time of colonization and the creation of the Jewish state.
In terms of Ukraine, the U.S. is basically conducting a proxy war against Russia. Billions of dollars are going to Ukraine, not only from the U.S., but also from allies in Western Europe. Despite the money, there is no end in sight and Russia seems to be gaining ground in the east of the country. The democratic party and Biden are firmly committed to the strategy to bring Ukraine into NATO. This is supported by the military-industrial complex as this would mean more revenues and a massive new market. The U.S. weapon producers are benefiting vastly from the ongoing conflict.
The republican party is more divided and does not have a fundamental interest in expanding NATO eastward. They are also hesitant about continuing to finance Ukraine, one of the most corrupt countries in the world, without any proper checks and controls. The U.S. budget deficit is growing, and some more fiscally conservative republicans are against continued reckless spending, including foreign aid. Many republicans are still supporting Ukraine and continued aid though. In the recent house vote, 101 republicans voted in favor or sending money to Ukraine, 112 voted against. The democrats voted in favor.
Russia now controls about 20% of Ukraine, mostly in the east and southern regions and is slowly gaining ground. This is the area were 80-90% of the citizens are Russian-speaking and might support Russia anyway. In the western part of Ukraine about 3% are Russian speaking. From this point of view, the country was basically already split in two sections, one Ukrainian speaking and one Russian speaking. Should there be any hope of a ceasefire and sustainable peace, it seems that the country will have to split in two and the west be a new, smaller Ukraine, and the east either independent or absorbed by Russia. Crimea will undisputable remain Russian. Any other solution is difficult to envision. In terms of U.S. support, this will likely continue, but it might change because of the November election. It is highly unlikely that Trump would keep sending billions to Ukraine.
In terms of peace predictions, it is difficult to see light in the tunnel right now. Things might get more complicated before peace can be achieved. It seems that the conflict in the Middle East is unresolvable and the conflict in Ukraine will continue for a while. The U.S. should be more focused on finding solutions for lasting peace treatments instead of sending more weapons and money.