Trump and Europe

Trump has a very different idea of Europe than previous U.S. presidents since Eisenhower. Since then, the U.S. has basically paid for the European defense, the European have imposed high unilateral tariffs on U.S. goods and they have not paid their fair share of NATO expenses, noting that the US funds 65% of NATO, and Europeans only 35%. Trump also think the EU is a dysfunctional creation and think they are fools for letting in millions of immigrants from the Middle East and Africa. Regarding NATO, it is worth remembered wise words from future U.S. President Dwight Eisenhower, the First Supreme Allied Commander of NATO, and what he said in 1951: “If in 10 years, all American troops stationed in Europe have not been returned to the U.S., then this whole project of NATO will have failed. We must get these people to stand on their own feet militarily”.

This is the point. Europe has not been able to do that. In the annual World Economic Forum meeting in Davos, Trump presented the idea that Europe is careering down the wrong path. That is a theme Trump has frequently explored, but it has a different impact when delivered on European soil to the faces of supposed friends and allies. There is undoubtedly huge relief across Europe that the U.S. president ruled out the use of military force to take Greenland, but the intension still makes sense and it is time to end Danish and European colonialism. Trump also posted on social media that he was dropping his latest tariff threat against eight European countries he had ruled most guilty of thwarting his Arctic ambitions.

The European Union are meeting in Brussels for an emergency summit, with top European politicians having chosen to reach for their toughest language yet in response to U.S. policy. The European leaders are probably asking themselves how much do they need Washington’s money, military might and ultimately its friendship? From energy to defense, Ukraine to trade, Europe is reliant on the United States. But the geopolitical turbulence flowing from the White House is prompting many European leaders to consider the previously unthinkable, a future squarely on their own two feet. The truth is that Trump has told them that the U.S. will no longer foot the bill for tariffs, NATO and that the U.S. wants an end to the conflict in Ukraine.

While Trump has stepped back from threatened tariffs to try and force U.S. control over Greenland, the next step for the U.S. is to work with Russia and Ukraine for an end to the Ukrainian conflict. Intensive rounds of peace negotiations had brought Ukraine and the U.S. close to a final agreement on post-war security guarantees and a so-called prosperity plan for Ukraine’s post-war economic revival. Instead of joining Trump in Davos, Ukraine’s President Zelensky initially chose to wait in Kyiv and deal with a mounting energy crisis.

Europe has been accelerating efforts to reduce military dependence on the U.S. French President Macron claimed last week that France now meets two-thirds of Ukraine’s intelligence needs, reducing the crushing burden of dependence on the U.S. Europe has already had a year to get used to life without direct supplies of U.S. weapons for Ukraine, they are now purchased by other NATO allies. France and the UK maintain nuclear arsenals, with both Poland and Germany expressing interest in coming under the French nuclear umbrella, a move that Europe’s deteriorating ties with Washington will only hasten. Even in new NATO member Sweden, there is debate about whether Stockholm should resurrect its nuclear weapons development program. In practice, France holds the only truly independent nuclear arsenal in Europe, with Britain’s Trident nuclear missiles made and stored in the U.S., a fact British Prime Minister Kier Starmer said this week limits his hand vis-à-vis Washington.

Today, the military muscle in Europe is still decidedly American. Tens of thousands of U.S. troops are based in, or rotate into, the European theater, with many of the U.S. military’s top assets calling Europe home. At the same time, Europe’s leaders shrugged off the importance of the U.S. to European security. Poland’s President Nawrocki reeled off examples of Polish, Finnish, Japanese and even Afghan victories against Russia as evidence. Finnish President Alexander Stubb expressed confidence that Europe could unequivocally defend itself without the U.S., although he trusted Washington to keep Finland’s dozens of US-made jet fighters flying during any conflict. In a recent speech to troops, France’s Macron said that, after a decade of it seeming unthinkable, the ‘Europe of defense’ is becoming a reality, with EU funding programs to boost defense purchases. Macron has been the loudest proponent for purchases of equipment to be from European suppliers, despite current industry backlogs and limited capacity. Relying almost exclusively on its homemade defense industry, France is an outlier in Europe. Thirteen European countries fly the U.S.-made F-35 jet, one of a handful of fifth-generation jets globally. These countries are tied to U.S. manufacturers, American software and even munitions to keep these jets airborne. Key U.S.-made anti-aircraft and rocket artillery systems, like the PATRIOT or HIMARS systems, are also tied to U.S. supply lines and have few European-made alternatives.

Some analysts have pointed to Europe’s large holdings of US Treasuries and equities as a potential weapon in its arsenal should it want to retaliate against Trump’s threat of tariffs. European countries, which collectively own around $8 trillion in American bonds and equities, do, in theory, have the power to punish one of the central pillars of American economic dominance, the dollar. It was clear that the mood in Europe has soured and the continent’s options are stark. Europe will realize that they will no longer be able to take advantage of the U.S. and they will turn to other options like China instead of trying to work closer with the U.S. government. The leaders from the main countries such as France, Germany and the UK and too weak to find a suitable and reasonable path forward, so they will keep going with the EU, make inroads to China, try to save Ukraine instead of working for peace and keep letting immigrants in. Europe stands at a crossroad, and it will take some time before they find their way again. Until then, the U.S. will dominate what is going on in Europe.