Trump and republicans in trouble
As Trump barrels toward the end of his first year back in the White House, the president is beset by slumping poll numbers and a pileup of problems, some of which are self-inflicted. The November elections in New York, Virginia, California and elsewhere were disastrous for the republicans and they did not manage to win one single race. Even a gaggle of normally obedient republicans in Congress are growing restless, and Trump’s call for gerrymandering House district lines in red states to pad the GOP advantage in the midterms is in danger of producing the opposite outcome. It is a bizarre priority and the voters are now warning to ideas of in effect cheating.
The sheer volume of mounting trouble reflects Trump’s supreme self-confidence, grand vision and his “Let’s do it now” management style. On any given day, the combination results in too many balls in the air competing for his attention. It is time for Trump to tighten the focus and follow a more methodical approach so the most important things get sufficient presidential attention.
Some might think everything is fine and dandy. The market is up, inflation is down, peace efforts are made, but the truth is that the president is underwater with voters on every major poll taken this month. According to Real Clear Politics, his average approval is a mere 43%, while his average disapproval is 54.8%, a spread of minus 11.8 points. Most troubling, the numbers are far worse on his handling of the economy, which was the issue at the heart of his resounding 2024 victory over Kamala Harris in all the swing states. His recent talk of handing out tariff rebate checks of $2,000 smacks of desperation. Unemployment is still too high and job creation too low and this is putting much stress on many American families. Affordability is a key word in the election campaigns and Trump needs to address this more aggressively. However, there are some key issues that impact voters and Trump’s popularity.
The conflict in the Middle East has shown that Trump and the U.S. always will support Israel, regardless of an ongoing genocide of Palestinians, increased occupation of the West Bank and supporting a de facto apartheid Israeli constitution. It seems unhuman and many voters frankly don’t support Israel nor the Jewish lobby in the U.S. Trump recently touted a proposal his aides had crafted to settle the Ukraine-Russia conflict as a sign that something good may just be happening, but leaders in Europe, U.S. media and elsewhere blasted it as a capitulation to Russian demands. That is not to deny that Trump has had great success as a peacemaker in other conflicts.
This week, a federal judge’s decision to toss the indictments of former FBI Director James Comey and New York Attorney General Letitia James unleashed loud cheering in the media. As the New York Times put it, the ruling by Judge Cameron McGowan Currie in Virginia marked the most significant setback yet to the president’s efforts to force the criminal justice system to punish his perceived foes. The best way forward would likely be to move on, to forget the past and the democrat’s efforts to derail Trump’s presidency and to have him arrested and jailed. Many Americans still believe Trump won the 2020 election as there is no way Biden received more than 81 million votes, but the best way forward is to move on. Trump has taken reasonable steps like pardoning the political prisoners from January 6 and he has not shown a vindictive side, so the best for him and the republicans would likely be just to move on. The idea that Trump is hell-bent on punishing his political enemies is a handy one for the left, but it never concedes that Comey, James and others first investigated Trump largely because he was a republican. They targeted him for purely political reasons, yet that is only a problem when he goes after those who abused their offices and arguably committed other crimes. At the same time, the core MAGA voters are not happy that Trump is not going after his enemies after everything they did to him. The situation is difficult for Trump as there are concerns from independents and MAGA voters at the same time.
This week the feud between Trump and his former supporter Marjorie Taylor Greene ended with her stating that she would leave Congress in January, 2026. Trump cheered her departure and called her names, despite that she has been a loyal follower and seemed to be right about her criticism of Trump that the Epstein case needed more transparency, his foreign policy decision like Argentina and spending too much time on foreign issues instead of America First issues and critic of his domestic economic policies related to healthcare and cost of living. All these items resonate with many Americans, in particular the core MAGA voters.
In order for Trump and the republicans to gain the upper hand they need to focus more on domestic issues, take bold decisions, not be all over the place, but find a few areas of focus such as the economy and job creation. Had the midterm election taken place today, it would likely have been a blowout democratic victory, which would have resulted in a very complicated last two years for the Trump presidency. Also, the republicans should bear in mind that in the midterm election 2026, 20 republican senators are up for re-election and only 13 democrats. The republicans might go on to lose both the House of Representatives and the Senate if they don’t change course sooner rather than later.