A nuclear Saudi Arabia?

Trump recently approved an agreement with Saudi Arabia that will provide the kingdom with uranium enrichment capability for its civilian nuclear program. The deal will last 30 years and is also expected to involve U.S. firms in developing the program. The deal would allow for the building of a uranium enrichment facility in Saudi Arabia. The agreement does not include the IAEA’s “Additional Protocol” which grants the U.N.’s International Atomic Energy Agency broad and more intrusive oversight of a country’s nuclear activities, such as the power to carry out snap inspections at undeclared locations.

However, the day after the agreement, Trump announced that he will not go ahead with a civil nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia unless Riyadh agrees to normalize ties with Israel, under the so-called Abraham Accords. Saudi Arabia has yet to respond to Trump’s latest statement tying the nuclear deal to normalization. But Riyadh has long insisted it will not establish formal relations with Israel until there is a clear path for Palestinian statehood, which Israel’s current government staunchly opposes.

Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Energy said the agreement bolsters efforts to diversify energy sources, advance cutting-edge technologies, and expand opportunities for cooperation and investment in ways that serve the mutual interests of the two friendly countries. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio insisted on Thursday that the deal would not lead to nuclear proliferation, as U.S. contractors would handle the project, allowing Washington to monitor it. U.S. nuclear reactor designer Westinghouse is believed to be a major contractor.

The back and forth of the agreement is typical Trump. Chaotic, unpredictable, and vain. Trump’s character also shapes his foreign policy and that shows in the case of Saudi Arabia. The multi-decade, multibillion-dollar deal allows American companies to develop and operate commercial nuclear power plants on Saudi soil, potentially including a uranium-enrichment facility. The Saudis have sought such a deal for almost 20 years. United States presidents have expressed openness to it, but on two conditions: Any deal must include safeguards against Saudi use of enrichment for nuclear weapons and also a normalization of relations with Israel.

With the return of Trump to the presidency, the Saudis surely hoped their moment had arrived. Saudi Arabia has invested heavily in Trump and the Trump family, including licensing deals with the Trump Organization potentially worth billions of dollars and a huge commitment to the private-equity firm founded by Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner. This week, those investments seemed to have paid off. Details on Wednesday’s agreement are sparse, but the pact, by clearing a way to nuclear enrichment, opened a path to an eventual Saudi nuclear weapon.

Is there a chance that the deal with move forward and Saudi Arabia will recognize Israel? The short answer is yes, eventually it is possible, but not in the near term unless major political conditions change. Saudi Arabia has never recognized Israel, but for several years it has been engaged in intermittent U.S.-brokered discussions about normalization. Before the Gaza war, many analysts believed an agreement was relatively close. Since then, the political environment has become much more difficult.

Today, the main obstacles are the Palestinian issue. Saudi Arabia has repeatedly said it wants a credible and irreversible path toward a Palestinian state before establishing diplomatic relations with Israel. Riyadh has publicly reaffirmed this position multiple times. The war in Gaza and broader regional tensions have made normalization politically costly for Saudi leaders. Public opinion in the Arab world is strongly opposed to recognizing Israel under current circumstances. Many observers believe that progress would require an Israeli government willing to make significant concessions on Palestinian statehood, which has been difficult under recent governments.

At the same time, there are powerful incentives pushing both countries toward eventual normalization. They share concerns about Iran’s regional influence, they have overlapping security and intelligence interests, there would likely be substantial economic benefits in trade, technology, tourism, and investment. The Trump administration continues to view Saudi-Israeli normalization as a major strategic objective. Trump is also looking beyond his presidency. The Trump family has developed significant business interests in Saudi Arabia. The major areas include real estate licensing and development. The Trump Organization has entered into partnerships with Saudi real estate developer Dar Global, a subsidiary of Dar Al Arkan. Current projects include Trump Tower Riyadh, Trump Tower Jeddah and additional luxury residential, hotel, and golf developments. These are generally licensing agreements, meaning the Trump Organization licenses the Trump brand rather than financing construction itself.

After leaving the White House in 2021, Jared Kushner founded Affinity Partners. Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund invested $2 billion in the firm, making it its largest outside investor. While Kushner is not part of the Trump Organization, he is Donald Trump’s son-in-law, and the investment has drawn considerable public and congressional scrutiny. The Trump Organization has also announced projects in the UAE, Qatar, and Oman, often in partnership with Dar Global, making the Gulf region one of the company’s fastest-growing international markets. Overall, Saudi Arabia has become one of the Trump family’s most important international business markets, spanning real estate licensing, golf, and investment partnerships. The thought of helping Saudi Arabia on a nuclear path might benefit the Trump family, but this seems to be a poor idea. After all, Saudi Arabia is a country full of problems such as restrictions on freedom of speech, freedom of association, and political dissent. Saudi Arabia is an absolute monarchy and Citizens do not elect the national government through competitive elections. Saudi Arabia has faced international criticism for its role in the Yemen conflict and for the 2018 killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi and for not recognize Israel. It seems that Saudi Arabia needs to change first and then the U.S. could consider helping them with uranium enrichment capability for its civilian nuclear program. One step at the time.