Is Georgia the next Ukraine?

There are no Russian tanks rumbling towards Tbilisi, the capital of Georgia, or Russian missiles flying over it, both things that happened during a five-day incursion in 2008 when Russia attacked its former vassal. But Georgia is still in mortal peril. The struggle between Soviet past and possible European future has already devastated Ukraine. Now it has spread to the Caucasus, threatening Georgia’s independence, and its Euro-Atlantic calling.

Georgia’s parliament recently voted through a divisive foreign agent law that has sparked mass street protests. Critics say the bill, which they call the Russia law, could be used to threaten civil liberties. Under the bill, NGOs and independent media that receive more than 20% of their funding from foreign donors would have to register as organizations bearing the interests of a foreign power.

Protesters are concerned that the legislation would be used by the government to suppress its opponents. Parallels have also been drawn with an authoritarian bill which came into force in Russia in 2012, and which the Kremlin has since used to clamp down on dissidents.

Opposition parties say the new law could harm Georgia’s attempt to join the European Union (EU), which has given it candidate status. The EU has warned the bill could jeopardize further progress within the bloc. The U.S has announced it will impose travel bans and other sanctions on politicians complicit in undermining democracy in Georgia, and the EU had declared passage of the bill would torpedo the South Caucasus country’s hopes of joining the bloc. Brussels handed Georgia EU candidate status in December despite concerns over backsliding on human rights issues and a failure to implement key reforms. Brussels may not immediately freeze the country’s candidate status, awaiting the outcome of elections in Georgia in October.

Russia already controls a large part of Georgia since the Russo-Georgian War in 2008. They consist of the regions of the Autonomous Republic of Abkhazia and the former South Ossetian Autonomous Region of Soviet Georgia. Both Abkhazia and South Ossetia are widely recognized as integral parts of Georgia and together represent 20% of Georgia’s internationally recognized territory.

Efforts by the Georgian government to adopt a Kremlin-style law imposing restrictions on civil society have laid bare the geopolitical struggle currently underway to define the country’s future. The escalating crisis in the southern Caucasus nation also offers some indications of the end game Russia may have in mind if it succeeds in defeating Ukraine. The bill is also notable for positioning Georgia’s traditional Western allies as adversaries.

The Georgian government’s bid to adopt legislation reminiscent of Russia is even more remarkable as polls show that around eighty percent of Georgians favor integration with the EU. None of these appears to have deterred the Georgian authorities. The founder and unofficial leader of the Georgian Dream party, billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, doubled down on his party’s increasingly conspiratorial, anti-Western posturing in a rare public address that was reminiscent of Kremlin propaganda. Ivanishvili’s speech was widely viewed as a major milestone in his party’s attempts to turn Georgia away from the West and toward Russia.

With Georgian society at a geopolitical crossroads and engulfed in increasing violence, many observers are drawing parallels with Ukraine’s 2013-14 Euromaidan Revolution. Some are even asking whether the country is now experiencing its own “Yanukovych moment,” a reference to the pro-Kremlin Ukrainian president who fled to Russia following months of unrest.

The two situations certainly appear to have much in common. On both occasions, the country’s pro-Western political forces and civil society protested against an increasingly authoritarian and Kremlin-friendly government in order to defend their basic democratic rights. On both occasions, the brutality of the regime’s response fueled a surge in public support for the protests.

Georgia’s broader political trajectory may also provide some insights into Russia’s plans if its invasion of Ukraine proves successful. The Georgian Dream party first came to power in 2012 at a time when the wounds of Russia’s 2008 invasion of Georgia were still raw. Over the past 12 years, the party has been able to gradually consolidate its grip on power, becoming steadily bolder in its promotion of pro-Kremlin and anti-Western positions. This has been achieved despite the overwhelmingly pro-Western mood in the country.

This kind of scenario appears to be what Russia had in mind for Ukraine at the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022. Moscow’s initial plan was to decapitate the government in Kyiv and install a puppet regime that would end Ukraine’s Western integration and anchor the country firmly in the Kremlin orbit, despite strong Ukrainian public support for a European future.

The current protests in Georgia are taking place as the country prepares for parliamentary elections in October. The fate of the Foreign Agents Law is expected to significantly impact the course of the coming vote, with Georgian Dream officials accused of planning to use the legislation to silence opponents. The outcome of the October election will tell us much about Georgia’s likely future geopolitical direction. This will have huge implications for the wider southern Caucasus region. Geographically, Georgia is far away from the U.S., and the U.S. is not actively seeking to add Georgia to NATO, but it is still worth noting that this geopolitically important country, with strong western leaning values, is at risk of becoming an authoritarian regime with strong ties to Russia again. This is worth noting and the U.S. administration should address this political risk sooner rather than later.