Japan’s election

Japan is important and the U.S. is important to Japan. It is a relationship that has deepened gradually since WWII. Japan is the cornerstone of U.S. strategy in East Asia. And it hosts around 50,000+ U.S. troops and key military bases like Yokosuka and Okinawa, which would let the U.S. respond quickly to crises in China, North Korea and Taiwan. Japan also facilitates and keeps sea lanes open in the Pacific, where a huge chunk of global trade flows. The relationship has changed over the last few decades as China is getting increasingly powerful and aggressive and the importance of Japan as a key ally has grown significantly. Geographically, Japan sits right next to key chokepoints China needs for trade and naval access and it is one of the few countries in the region with the tech, money, and political will to help counterbalance China.

The U.S. and Japan coordinate closely on Taiwan, regional security, and military planning. The situation in Taiwan is becoming increasingly complex as China under Xi is aiming to occupy Taiwan and incorporate the democracy into their country, something that most people, but not everyone, is opposed in Taiwan. Based on experiences from Hong Kong and other part if China like Tibet, this would be the end of Taiwan democracy and independence and the U.S. and Japan are keen to keep a balance act in deterring China from attacking Taiwan. If you are the U.S. and you care about stability in Asia, Japan is your most valued partner.

Japan is likely the U.S. most reliable parter, a democracy with strong cultural values and with very high trust and coordination at the government and military level. That reliability matters, especially compared to regions where alliances are shakier, like in Europe with notoriously unreliable partners like Germany and France. Also, Japan is a global economic giant with one of the world’s largest economies. Japan is also a major investor in the U.S. across sectors like cars, factories, and technology. When the U.S. wants resilient supply chains with semiconductors, batteries, advanced manufacturing, Japan is there and is well integrated in the U.S. supply chain system. Japan is also crucial in areas the U.S. cares deeply about such as semiconductors and chip equipment, robotics and advanced manufacturing, green energy and next-gen batteries and works closely with the U.S. in the UN, G7, and other global forums. If Europe is the U.S.’s anchor in the Atlantic, Japan is the anchor in the Pacific. Without Japan, U.S. influence in Asia would be weaker, slower, and way more expensive to maintain.

This week, Japan had called a snap election. Japan’s first female Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, brought the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) its biggest electoral victory in its 71-year history, fueling her ambitions to pursue to a political agenda which she herself says could split public opinion. The snap elections for the lower house of parliament were held despite the shortest campaign period in post-war history, and massive snowstorms across much of Japan. Benefitting from Takaichi’s popularity, the LDP won a two-thirds majority in the lower house, enough to override vetoes by the opposition-controlled upper house. It would also allow the LDP to initiate amendments to Japan’s pacifist constitution, which the party has sought to revise since its founding in 1955, and Takaichi said she would pave the way for an eventual referendum on the issue.

It is the biggest majority any single Japanese party has won in the lower house in the post-war era. An unprecedented 90% of candidates fielded by the LDP won. Japan’s Nikkei stock index jumped to a record high, bond yields went up, and Japan’s currency the Yen went down, in anticipation of Takaichi’s stimulus spending and tax cuts, similar to Trump’s actions in the U.S. Questions and criticisms remain about how Takaichi will pay for these priorities, given that Japan’s government debt is more than 200% of GDP. But Takaichi apparently feels her mandate will empower her to sweep aside obstacles.

Takaichi’s lopsided victory comes amid a general shift to the political right in Japan. Following Takaichi’s election as LDP president last year, the LDP’s coalition partner of 26 years, the centrist Komeito Party, left the bloc. The LDP then joined a new coalition with the right-wing populist Japan Innovation Party. Komeito joined a new coalition called the Centrist Reform Alliance, which lost most of their seats in the snap election, prompting their leaders to resign. Takaichi also restated at her press conference her intention to revise Japan’s National Defense Strategy and related documents. She did not say what exactly she might change, but she has previously hinted that she could rework the country’s longstanding policies not to produce, possess or share nuclear weapons.

The first Trump administration adopted the concept of the Free and Open Indo-Pacific, envisioning like-minded nations upholding a rules-based international order against revisionist powers, implied to mean China. For Trump and the U.S., the election in Japan is good news as it will counter the China’s power expansion in Asia. Takaichi pledged to continue to use the Japan-U.S. alliance as the cornerstone of foreign policy, and plans to meet with President Trump next month. Trump is scheduled to visit China in April. Takaichi, meanwhile, is at the center of a diplomatic stalemate with Beijing, over her comments that a Chinese blockade of Taiwan could trigger a Japanese military response. The Trump administration emphasizes that its allies must bear a greater share of defense and other burdens. Takaichi may be better positioned than her predecessors to deliver such results.