Pay attention to the Arctic
Tensions are growing at the top of the world. U.S. president Trump wants Greenland, Russia is modernizing its Arctic military bases, and Chinese icebreakers are opening new routes. As the battle for one of the world’s coldest places heats up, an increasingly fragile security balance may be breaking down, leading to an escalating arms race.
It is clear why the region is considered pivotal and why the struggle over its land, sea and sky is accelerating. Trump does have a point that Greenland would be better suited to be aligned with the U.S. rather than colonial-minded Denmark, which offers Greenland limited investments and opportunities. Trump has repeatedly stated his desire to control Greenland for national security purposes. The question of why a territory with only 56,000 or so people matters comes down to geography.
In the Cold War between the US and Soviet Union, nuclear weapons were the ultimate instruments of war, holding the balance of terror and the fastest route for weapons to reach their targets was over the North Pole. At the dawn of the Cold War, the U.S. established an important base in the remote north of Greenland at a place called Thule, recently renamed Pituffik Space Base. The Cold War may be gone but the site’s importance has not diminished. It still forms a crucial part of BMEWS, America’s Ballistic Missile Early Warning System.
Trump has talked about wanting a Golden Dome to protect the U.S., a reference to the Iron Dome that helps protect Israel from missiles. Early warning sites would be vital for such a system, with Greenland offering significant potential as a forward operating base for both defense and offense.
Greenland is still part of Denmark, where there has been anger over Washington’s acquisitive talk earlier this year. Long-term it is likely that Denmark’s colonial mindset will change as it is clear that Greenland would benefit from closer ties to the U.S.
Russia is the most important player in the Arctic region. A fifth of its territory is in the Arctic and it accounts fnor more than half of the coastline. Where Western powers largely drew back from the region until recently, Russia has spent years investing in its presence, upgrading airbases like Nagurskoye, which has been in operation since the Cold War and can now handle large aircraft in the extreme north. The Kola Peninsula is where much of Russia’s nuclear submarine fleet is based. Russian submarines depart bases here to lurk beneath the Arctic ice ready for an order to launch a strike on their adversary and Moscow sees it as vital for its deterrent and ability to project force.
The Baltic Sea has become less accessible for Russian military operations following Sweden and Finland joining NATO, which means that the Northern Fleet becomes more important. The islands of Svalbard are another place to watch. Under a treaty, Norway controls them but other countries, including Russia, are allowed to operate there.
The gap between Greenland, Iceland and the UK is strategically important. The UK is not formally an Arctic power, but its involvement is growing, in part to counter Russia. To reach the Atlantic easily, the Russian Northern Fleet need to go through a narrow body of water running between Greenland and the UK with Iceland in the middle. UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy visited the Arctic in late May and announced a new joint scheme with Iceland to use AI technology to monitor hostile activity in the region. Even though Britain is seeking a greater Arctic role, the UK has insufficient key military assets, such as submarines and maritime patrol or airborne early warning aircraft, to support an increased focus in the Arctic.
In the waters of the Arctic, a new security challenge is also emerging thanks to climate change. It was likely that the High North will be ice free each summer by 2040, but some experts believe this underestimates the speed of change. The sea ice coverage has shrunk substantially over the last few decades. These warming waters offer new opportunities, unlocking access to sought-after minerals and fishing areas. But this could also lead to economic competition and tension, especially as new shipping routes open. Roughly a tenth of Russia’s economic output comes from the extraction of natural resources from the Arctic.
This is also where China enters the frame. China has called itself a “near-Arctic” state and, despite being a considerable distance from the region and lacking any Arctic coastline, it is becoming increasingly active. That is driven partly by melting ice opening up the possibility for a new trade route across the North. For China, a new “Polar Silk Road” offers a new shipping route which is faster and potentially more secure than using the Suez Canal. As a result, it has been seeking to project power.
Beijing has rapidly expanded its already large fleet of icebreakers and China and Russia have staged a joint patrol over the Bering Sea near the coast of Alaska. However, Russia is also unhappy of Chinese influence growing in a region it sees as its backyard. Recent leaked documents from Russia’s Security Service, reported by the New York Times, highlighted Moscow’s concerns that Chinese spies were carrying out espionage in the Arctic using mining firms and academic research as cover. China can clearly not be trusted. It seems inevitable that the Arctic will become more militarized as the region will become geopolitical more important. The U.S. will try to align closer to Greenland and the UK to counter Russia’s expansion in the region. In order to be successful, it will require funds and a willingness to make major investments for the future. The arctic will increase in importance, both economically and militarily.