AI and warfare
AI warfare refers to the use of artificial intelligence technologies to automate military operation and enhance or bypass human decision-making in armed conflicts. AI is used to rapidly analyze large volumes of military intelligence data, including making recommendations or decisions on who and what to target.
While advancing a maximum lethality doctrine in its war with Iran, the U.S. is simultaneously testing a large-scale AI-driven military system, offering a glimpse into the future of warfare. The Iran war is serving as one of the first field tests of an AI-integrated military machine. Behind the volume of U.S. strikes lies a system designed to compress targeting decisions that once took days into seconds, raising profound questions as to speed, accountability, and the cost of civilian life.
At the center of the U.S. military’s AI strategy lies the Maven Smart System (MSS). The platform, developed by software company Palantir, grew out of Project Maven, a Pentagon initiative established in 2017 that uses computer vision algorithms to analyze radar, video, and satellite imagery for the purpose of target identification. Originally adopted by the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA), it was designated as a formal program of record in 2023.
The MSS integrates the NGA’s mapping data into a unified mission control platform, giving commanders a live, synchronized view of the battlefield. Beneath the interface, machine-learning models analyze incoming data, classify objects, and assign confidence scores to potential detections. Once a target is formally identified, the system moves it through a targeting pipeline, recommending strike options, suggested weaponry, and ranked courses of action. A human officer reviews their recommendations and either authorizes a strike or forwards the target package for further approval.
Project Maven, prior to its full-scale rollout in Iran, was an ambitious experiment trialed on the frontlines of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, a live experiment to test the system’s ability to filter intelligence regarding enemy troop movements and communications into an accessible, user-friendly platform, directing Ukrainian commanders’ strategic capabilities. While the frontlines of Ukraine operated as Project Maven’s workshop, Israel’s military campaign in Gaza offered a preliminary look at AI’s potential as a primary targeting mechanism.
The IDF integrated two AI systems: Lavender and Habsora (The Gospel). Reportedly, the Gospel has been used to select and prioritize physical strike targets like buildings and infrastructure, while Lavender has been used to generate human targets, providing a database that at one point identified 37,000 potential targets, predominantly potential junior Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) or Hamas militants who fit the category of ‘military-aged male’. The IDF’s AI system integrated Lavender and the Gospel to provide targeting intelligence reports to analysts. If the analysts determined that the object qualified as a target, they would pass this determination on to a higher-level intelligence officer who could confirm the strike.
The Maven Smart Systems primary function is to compress the kill chain, the process from intelligence gathering to a completed strike, which has been the central focus of military strategy since the advent of long-range weaponry in the 20th century. Compressing this process to increase first-strike effectiveness, achieve decision superiority and maximize lethality has long been a key strategic aim for the U.S. military.
The MSS has been tested since 2020 in a live exercise called Scarlet Dragon to evaluate how significantly AI tools can streamline the process. The results were striking: 20 soldiers using the system were able to handle a targeting workload equivalent to that managed by 2,000 personnel during the 2003 invasion of Iraq. A new objective was set to achieve 1,000 tactical decisions per hour, or one every 3.6 seconds. Operations that would have unfolded over weeks in previous conflicts, like the coordination of leadership strikes paired with large-scale ballistic missile barrages, were executed rapidly and simultaneously.
While the Middle East has emerged as the epicenter of AI-facilitated precision targeting, the Ukraine-Russia conflict has served as the world’s foremost testing ground for drone innovation and the backdrop for the race towards fully autonomous weapons systems. The Ukrainian military’s central objective is the replacement of humans with fully autonomous battle systems. This is in contrast to the early stages of the conflict, where the Ukrainian military experimented with deploying drones as surveillance tools on the front line before recognizing their utility in offsetting their personnel disadvantage, attaching explosives to cheap commercial frames and developing a fleet of inexpensive killing machines. Drones quickly developed from a tool in the Ukrainian military arsenal to their primary weapon of war, reorganizing their entire war effort around the technology. The basis for the model: drone assault units, which combine aerial and ground drones with infantry into a single system.
The Martians, Ukraine’s new-generation drone fleet, is rumored to possess elements of autonomy. Unlike previous Ukrainian drone generations that relied on GPS navigation and radio-frequency control, both of which are vulnerable to Russian jamming, the Martians navigate by processing real-time visual data against terrain features, requiring no GPS signal and no radio operator. The Martians reportedly fly at up to 300km per hour and are able to entirely avoid Russian drone detection systems.
The US Pentagon FY2026 budget request includes $13.4 billion specifically dedicated to AI-facilitated autonomous systems, $9.4b of which is earmarked for unmanned aerial vehicles. China has not revealed its spending on equivalent systems, but it is estimated to be comparable. The race towards autonomous weapon systems raises questions as to accountability, responsibility, and compatibility with international law. In a 2025 UN General Assembly (UNGA) resolution that contended artificial intelligence and autonomy in weapons systems raise serious challenges from humanitarian, legal, security, technological and ethical perspectives in undermining the role of humans in the use of armed force. The resolution was favored by 156 states. Russia, Israel and the US voted against, while China abstained.
It is not just states and private software companies that are participating in this race. There is growing concern regarding the proliferation of AI-integrated weapon systems into the hands of terrorists. Between 2018 and September 2024, more than 810 drone attacks were carried out by non-state actors. First-person vision (FPV) drones are increasingly being used to carry out drone strikes in West Africa. An al-Qaeda affiliate in Burkina Faso and Mali has conducted at least 69 drone strikes since 2023, while two Islamic State affiliates have carried out at least 20 strikes, primarily in Nigeria.
There are historical precedents visible in the AI arms race. Private industry has long been intertwined with defense and advances in technology have consistently reshaped the conduct of war and the actors with the capabilities to partake in it. However, the pace and nature of AI integration present a distinct challenge. Military capabilities are evolving faster than the legal and governance frameworks designed to regulate them, and the role of human judgement within these systems is becoming less certain. Whether humans will maintain meaningful oversight over weapon systems, or simply serve as a rubber stamp that approves automated decision-making, is becoming increasingly unclear as the AI arms race intensifies. It is clear that AI and high-tech is the future of modern warfare and the U.S. and China are ahead in the development. Big armies do not count any longer, like many other aspects of life and progress, technology has taken over and will lead the way also in warfare.