Mexico and Trump
The southern neighbor of the U.S., Mexico, is a source for much tension due to illegal immigration, political tension and drugs. Trump has promised to change the situation by closing the border, be tougher towards Mexico, impose tariffs and fight the Mexican criminal cartels.
A few days ago, the Trump administration formally designated eight Latin American crime organizations as foreign terrorist organizations, upping its pressure on cartels operating in the U.S. and on anyone aiding them.
The move names Tren de Aragua in Venezuela, MS-13 in El Salvador and six groups based in Mexico. The foreign terrorist organization label is unusual because it deploys a terrorist designation normally reserved for groups like al-Qaida or the Islamic State group that use violence for political ends, not for money-focused crime rings such as the Latin American cartels. On the other hand, the cartels promote violence, and their drugs kills thousand of Americans each year. Only fentanyl kills about 70,000 Americans annually.
The Trump administration argues that the international connections and operations of the groups, including drug trafficking, migrant smuggling and violent pushes to extend their territory, warrant the designation. After all, the cartels in Mexico are very powerful and are a significant part of the Mexican economy. Cartels controlled about one third of Mexico’s territory, according to one estimate from the U.S. military.
At the same time as Trump is trying to fight the criminal cartels, Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum filed a controversial series of changes to the country’s constitution that would essentially block any investigation or action by foreign law enforcement agencies without their permission. The provisions could enable Mexico to criminally pursue anyone involved in those investigations. The changes come after the U.S. designated six Mexican drug cartels as foreign terrorist organizations and announced the intent to eradicate them.
“What we want to make clear in the face of this designation is that we do not negotiate sovereignty,” Sheinbaum said. “This cannot be an opportunity on the part of the U.S. to invade our sovereignty. So, they can name it whatever they want, but with Mexico, it is collaboration and coordination, never subordination, not interference, and much less invasion.”
It seems reasonable to ask why the Mexican president in effect would try to protect the cartels and stop any attempt by the U.S. to fight the cartels. The reason is likely that the cartels are so ingrained and integrated in the Mexican system and economy, that politicians prefer a status quo. Sheinbaum has been harshly criticized by political opponents and news outlets in Mexico in the past for appearing to be trying to protect drug cartels from the U.S. government.
In the case of the Mexican constitution Article 40, Sheinbaum is proposing to add wording that Mexico will not accept any interference, intervention, or other foreign act that would damage the nation’s sovereignty, integrity, and independence. The wording also prohibits violations of Mexican territory via land, sea, or air.
The amendment reads in Spanish: “Also, we will not consent to any intervention in any investigation or prosecution without the express authorization and collaboration of the Mexican State within the framework of the applicable laws.”
The second article that would be changed in the constitution is Article 19, which would impose the strictest penalties, including prison without bond, for Mexican nationals and foreigners who take part in any violations of Article 40 or weapons violations. The point is that it includes foreigners, which means that if Americans are trying to unilaterally arrest cartel members, they can be arrested.
The Trump designation of the Mexican cartels prohibits U.S. citizens, foreign governments, and financial institutions from working with or protecting those organizations and provides prosecutors with a new series of criminal charges against anyone providing aid or support to these organizations.
Trump will try to be tough on Mexico and will likely impose tariffs, close the border and try to battle the cartels, which will not be easy.
Mexico is a country build on an oligarchy system, corruption and violence. Mexico’s 2024 election season was the country’s deadliest on record. Dozens of candidates, as well as their relatives and other party members, were assassinated in the run-up to polling day. And three further candidates were killed in the days following the vote after winning their respective races. More than 171,000 murders took place in Mexico between 2019 and 2023. Not much has been done about it. The reason for that is that governmental and local officials are often corrupted and compliant with the cartels.
Instead of trying to stop the U.S. from fighting the cartels, Mexico should coordinate with the U.S., Colombia and governments across Central America in their efforts to fight crime. Trump will start putting more pressure on Mexico, not only by tariffs, but also by other economic means. There will be an increased focus on building the wall and stop cartels from sending drugs to the U.S. The tension with Mexico will likely increase until Mexico complies.