Can Kamala Harris win?
Kamala Harris, whom Joe Biden opted to back after announcing that he will not seek reelection after all, was viewed as the most progressive senator prior to her becoming vice president, even to the left of Bernie Sanders. During the Biden presidency, Harris has been notably absent and not really involved in anything. The only thing worth noting is that as the VP, Harris can take credit for casting a record number of tie-breaking votes in the Senate to pass the Biden administration’s priorities, including the Inflation Reduction Act, which funneled billions into clean-energy initiatives and other government programs. The most recent analysis of contemporary polling by election website FiveThirtyEight, released on July 17, showed Harris had a net approval rating of -11.8, with 38.6 percent of those surveyed approving of her performance and 50.4 percent disapproving.
All of this means nothing as Harris is the new hope for the democratic party. At this point, the path for Harris to secure the democratic presidential nomination is clearing after a party coup against Joe Biden. That may end up being the easy part. Her elevation to the top of ticket would bring new strengths for the democrats, but given her weak track record, it also exposes weaknesses and issues. According to recent polls, Harris trails Trump slightly, which is a roughly similar position to the one Biden found himself.
For at least a moment, democrats have a jolt of energy after weeks of intense handwringing over the Biden’s fitness and ability to sustain his campaign that followed the debate with Trump. Biden was incoherent, confused and seems more or less senile. All of Harris’s leading potential rivals for the nomination have endorsed her, as has former speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, who remains one of the most influential players in democratic party.
Harris opportunity will be to capitalize on voters’ Trump aversion, attract independent centrist voters in key swing states and energize the democratic base, which was in the past few weeks swinging towards despair, to match the enthusiasm many on the right hold for Trump. The fact that Harris is not a moderate centrist at all might be a problem as a truly progressive with far-left economic ideas will have a difficult time to win centrists votes.
Harris also defuses one of the most effective attacks the republicans have levelled against their opponent Joe Biden, his age. Biden has seemed out of it and barely functional for years and this has been a major problem for the democrats. Harris, at age 59, will be a more energetic campaigner and able to make a more coherent case for her party. She could also turn the 78-year-old Trump’s age against him, as he would become the oldest person ever elected president.
Harris may also be able to shore up support from black voters, who polls indicate had been drifting away from Biden in recent months. If she can combine that with more backing from other minorities and younger voters, Obama’s winning coalition from 2008 and 2012, it could help her gain ground against Trump in the handful of swing states that will decide this year’s election.
Harris has also been the Biden administration’s point person on abortion, which has proven to be one of the most potent issues for motivating the democratic base in recent elections. Biden, by contrast, sometimes had been a reluctant advocate on the issue, hampered by a past record of supporting some limits on the procedure. Although Harris did not achieve anything as VP, the abortion connection is still crucial as it could mobilize the democratic base in a way that Biden never could have done.
Despite generating democratic enthusiasm about abortion, Harris’s record as vice-president has been forgetful. Early in the administration, she was set the task of addressing the root causes of the migration crisis at the U.S.-Mexico border. It is still unclear what Harris did, but it shows her incompetence and ignorance about a major national issue.
The Trump campaign will also try to turn Harris prosecutorial background against her, both by highlighting the Trump’s record of enacting criminal justice reform and by attacking her past prosecutorial and parole decisions. Also, Harris one solo run for national office, a bid for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination ended in ruins. While she surged early, a combination of fumbled interviews, a lack of clearly defined vision, far-left views, endless giggling in interviews, and a poorly managed campaign led her to drop out before even the earliest primary contests.
In terms of foreign affairs, Harris would likely continue many of Biden’s objectives. A Harris administration would probably continue the U.S. proxy war in Ukraine and continue anti-China initiatives to deepen alliances in Asia and the Pacific in the face of China’s geopolitical ascendance. Regarding Israel’s war on Hamas and other Iran-backed groups in the Middle East, Harris has sounded more sympathetic to the plight of Palestinians, a stance that could mollify Arab-American voters and others who are troubled by Biden’s support for Israel’s genocide in Gaza.
Harris has a chance to make a new first impression with the American public. She is still relatively unknown as she has not done anything as a VP, and people are happy, thrilled even, to finally be free from Biden, most likely one of the most ineffective presidents ever.
As the past weeks have shown, fortunes in the White House can shift quickly and permanently. The key opportunities for Harris to win against a strong and popular Trump are gains among minority voters across the board from women, blacks, Hispanics, focus on the right to abortion as this will energize the democratic base, present a more moderate economic platform, and bring in a moderate white male VP. If she does this successfully and stay away from the radical left of the democratic party, she will have a chance in November.