Does Europe matter in Ukraine?

European leaders stress the need to protect Ukrainian interest ahead of the Trump-Putin talks in Alaska. Although European leaders have welcomed Trump’s plans to meet Putin on ending the war in Ukraine, while stressing the need to keep pressure on Moscow and protect Ukrainian and European security interests. Trump plans to meet Putin in Alaska on Friday, saying the parties, including Ukrainian President Zelenskiy, were close to a deal that could resolve the three-and-a-half-year-old conflict.

The U.S. president is open to a trilateral summit with Putin and Zelenskiy, but for now, the White House is planning a bilateral meeting as requested by Putin, a White House official said. Russian and Ukrainian officials could not immediately be reached for comment on the prospects of a trilateral meeting. Details of a potential deal have not been announced, but Trump said it would involve “some swapping of territories to the betterment of both”. It could require Ukraine to surrender significant parts of its territory. This seems to make sense as Russia is already controlling about 20% of the Ukrainian territory, including the Russian speaking eastern regions of the country.

Last week, U.S. Vice President JD Vance met British Foreign Secretary David Lammy and representatives of Ukraine and European allies in a country mansion southeast of London, to discuss Trump’s push for peace. A joint statement from the French, Italian, German, Polish, British and Finnish leaders and the president of the European Commission welcomed Trump’s efforts, while stressing the need to maintain support for Ukraine and pressure on Russia.

Europe seems to emphasize the need for robust and credible security guarantees that enable Ukraine to effectively defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity, and that the path to peace in Ukraine cannot be decided without Ukraine. The European leaders said “they remain committed to the principle that international borders must not be changed by force”. This is clearly an impossible position and it is clear that Ukraine will have to give up territory and also stop claiming the Crimea should belong to Ukraine. This is the starting point so with that in mind, does Europe even matter? After all, the European leaders are making unrealistic assumptions in line with Ukrainian leaders. They argue that the front line is not a border, reiterating Kyiv’s position that it will reject any territorial concessions to Russia. This view seems incompatible with reality.  

European representatives put forward a counterproposal it seems. The Wall Street Journal said the counterproposal included demands that a ceasefire must take place before any other steps are taken and that any territorial exchange must be reciprocal, with firm security guarantees. The White House did not immediately respond when asked about the European counterproposals.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron spoke and pledged to find a “just and lasting peace” in Ukraine and “unwavering support” for Zelenskiy while welcoming Trump’s efforts to end the fighting.

At some point, it seems reasonable that Ukraine will play a role in peace negotiations. On the other hand, the war is really a proxy war between Biden’s NATO obsessed U.S. and Russia. With Trump having no interest in expanding NATO eastwards and not interested in continuing Biden’s conflict, he is eager to find a sustainable solution and peace during 2025. Europeans belief is that Ukraine will have to be involved in the peace negotiation and that is likely true that they will have to sign off on the final agreement, but there is no doubt that there will be no peace unless the U.S. takes charge and works with Russia.

Ukraine and the EU have pushed back on proposals that they view as ceding too much to Putin. Russia justifies the conflict on the grounds of what it calls threats to its security from a Ukrainian pivot towards the West and Biden’s effort to get Ukraine to join NATO.

At this point, Moscow has claimed four Ukrainian regions, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, as well as the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea, which was annexed in 2014. Russian forces do not fully control all the territory in the four regions, and Russia has demanded that Ukraine pull out its troops from the parts that they still control. Russian troops are still slowly advancing in Ukraine’s east.

It is time to move on from European delusions that Ukrainian territory will not chance in a peace agreement. Ukraine should cut its losses, give up the Russian speaking parts in the east, forget Crimea, never consider joining NATO again and work closer to align themselves with the EU economically. This is likely the only way forward. Ukraine should also work closer with the U.S. with trade deals and find solution for rebuilding their country. They will also have to go through a process of de-nazification, battle corruption, reinstate democracy and find a stable and lasting peace agreement with Russia.