Goodbye 2025, hello 2026
As the year is coming to an end, it is not difficult to conclude that 2025 was a year full of worries and global conflicts, some with significant geopolitical implications. Some of the conflicts are results of the weak and dangerous foreign policy by the far-left Joe Biden administration. By being soft on Iran, they allowed them to arm terror groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, resulting in the attack on Israel that led to the conflict and problems in the Gaza Strip. In a similar way, Biden’s obsession with NATO’s eastward expansion was a major factor in Russia moving into Ukraine to prevent them from joining NATO and, if possible, achieve a regime change in Kyiv.
The conflict in Ukraine has resulted in a closer cooperation between NATO countries and new countries like Finland and Sweden joined the alliance. The Trump administration is still skeptical to getting too close to some NATO countries as they still don’t pay what they should to the alliance. There has been one more major conflict worth mentioning, the ferocious civil war between two military factions in Sudan. More than 150,000 have been killed there over the past couple of years and around 12 million have been forced out of their homes. Few are paying attention to this conflict, but it might change in 2026.
The conflict in Ukraine has also shown how weak Europe is, both as an EU bloc, but also that they have relied too much and for too long on the U.S. They also come up with totally unrealistic solutions, like that the starting point of any discussions about Ukraine should be the return of Crimea and that Ukraine can join NATO. It is difficult to understand how they can even come up with these starting points as they are totally unrealistic. Trump on the other hand has shown a more proactive and pragmatic side and he has also shown that he does not need Europe and that he does not trust them, in particular Germany, but also Great Britian and France. Europe keeps taking about that Russia will have to pay war reparations, face war crimes tribune and other guarantees, whereas Trump talks about peace, moving on and cutting a fair deal. It seems clear that Europe does not support the Trump peace plan for Ukraine, as it involves giving up territory, ends sanctions and try to move on in a positive way. Europe has a difficult time to accept this as they are slightly delusional about the actual situation in Ukraine and that Ukraine little by little is losing. Besides, Donbas with its Russian speaking majority, has historical roots with Russia, and it might serve Ukraine well in the long run not to have this Russian minority as part of Ukraine.
Looking towards 2026, there is hope that the conflict in Ukraine will come to an end and there will be sustainable peace. Ukraine will have closer ties to the U.S. and also to Europe and might eventually join the EU. Ukraine will be without Crimea and Donbas, but will be able to move on and start rebuilding the country. The conflicts in Africa and the Middle East will likely continue as the parties are only partially interested in ending the conflicts.
As for China, President Xi Jinping has made some outright threats against Taiwan recently. The communist party is still firmly in power and seems to be constantly looking for signs of opposition, whether from organized groups like Falun Gong or the independent Christian church or the democracy movement in Hong Kong, see the recently trial against Jimmy Lai, or just people demonstrating against local corruption. All are stamped on with great force. For China, 2026 looks like being an important year. China’s strength will keep growing, and its strategy for taking over Taiwan, Xi Jinping’s great ambition, will become clearer. The Trump administration is keeping a close look on China and Taiwan, but is still very dependent on China economically and for import of rare earth minerals. It is clear though, that China cannot be trusted.
Overall, 2026 will hopefully and likely be a more peaceful year than 2025 and the Trump administration is working in that direction. The midterm election in the U.S. in November might cause problems for Trump, at least domestically, but there is no doubt that his ultimate goal across the globe is to work for peace, in particular if it is in the interest of the U.S.