Donbas

In the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine, Russia was predominately focused on ensuring Ukraine remains neutral, abandoning NATO aspirations, demilitarizing, and denazifying the country to prevent its Western integration. Russia focused on rolling back NATO expansion, preventing Western military infrastructure near Russia’s borders, and re-establishing a Russian sphere of influence in Eastern Europe. All this makes sense and it was not a surprise that Russia took charge of the perceived growing threat from Ukraine. Since the conflict started in February, 2022, Russia’s goals have somewhat changed. The focus seems to be more on consolidating gains in the east and south of Ukraine, grinding down Ukrainian forces through attrition, and exploiting perceived weaknesses in Western support. In terms of territorial control, Russia is primarily focused on controlling Donetsk and Luhansk regions, plus southern Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts, and keeping Crimea.

Moscow continues to insist that it wants Kyiv to withdraw its forces from Ukraine’s Donbas region, which Ukraine has been fiercely defending since 2014. It is important to keep in mind that the conflict actually started in 2014, not in 2022. Moscow’s primary target was the Donbas, the area which includes two of Ukraine’s regions, Donetsk and Luhansk. More than 10 years later, Russia is still trying to get complete control of the Donbas, pushing its territorial demands into the peace framework, mediated by the U.S.

In March 2014, following the Euromaidan protest movement and the resulting Ukrainian Revolution of Dignity, large swaths of the Donbas became gripped by pro-Russian and anti-government unrest. This unrest later grew into a conflict between Ukrainian government forces and pro-Russian separatists affiliated with the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk “People’s Republics”, who were supported by Russia. The conflict split the Donbas into Ukrainian-held territory, constituting about two-thirds of the region, and separatist-held territory, constituting about one-third. The region remained this way for years until Russia moved into Ukraine in February, 2022.

At this point, the Luhansk region is almost entirely under Moscow’s control, but the situation is different in the Donetsk region, where Ukrainian forces currently hold about 6,600 square kilometers, or around 25% of Donetsk. According to the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War think tank (ISW), with the current pace of advances and massive resources commitment, Russian forces could seize the rest of the Donetsk region only by August 2027.

Before 2014, the Donbas was Ukraine’s economic powerhouse. This area was home to the country’s largest industrial enterprises, including metallurgical, coal and chemical plants that exported globally. The London-based Centre for Economic and Business Research estimates that the Donbas region accounted for approximately 15.7% of Ukraine’s GDP and 14.7% of its population before 2014.

The Donbas has been an important coal mining area since the late 19th century, when it became a heavily industrialized territory. The city of Donetsk is the fifth largest city in Ukraine is considered the unofficial capital of the Donbas. Other large cities with over 100,000 inhabitants include Mariupol, Luhansk, Makiivka, Horlivka, Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Alchevsk, Sievierodonetsk, and Lysychansk.

In order to find peace in 2026, it is important that the parties find a sustainable solution. Trump is working hard with both countries to achieve lasting peace and it is clear that the Donbas should belong to Russia in the future. People there speak Russian, Russia is already in charge of most of the territory and it is a historically defined region that should not be divided or split up. Ukraine can then move on, without NATO, and align themselves more closely economically to the EU and to the U.S. Sanctions should be ended for Russia and there should be incentives for cooperation across the board. This seems to be the only solution to move towards peace and it is a reasonable solution, positive for all parties. To make this happen though, Ukraine and Europe will have to be more realistic and focus on the long-term vision and security of Ukraine. Trump is optimistic and believes that a peace agreement will take place in 2026. This will include accepting Donbas as part of Russia and that goes for Crimea too of course.