Is Britain rejoining Europe?

Since Brexit, there has been increased economic and political pressure on Britain to re-engage with Europe. In particular the Labour party is keen to get closer to Europe. With potential U.S. tariffs and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, Britain finds renewed purpose in unity with France and Germany.

A glorious spectacle was laid out for French President Macron in London last week, full honors, heralds, red carpets, a royal feast at Windsor Castle, wreath-laying in Westminster Abbey and a speech to both Houses of Parliament. Since Britain’s Brexit, France is the first European country to be honored with a state visit. This would certainly not have happened with a Conservative government. This was quite deliberately given precedence, ahead of President Trump’s state visit in September, so controversial it has been scheduled for three days when parliament is not sitting, avoiding the certainty that some MPs would publicly insult him by walking out.

The symbolism and the contrast between these two events tell the story of the European changes under way. Both Trump and Putin have woken Europe out of its complacent slumber, awake by the conflict in Ukraine and by Trump’s demands related to NATO and upcoming tariffs. Europe has taken advantage of the U.S. for a long time and it is coming to an end. Europe must regroup and start taking responsibilities for military investments and be prepared to have fair trade with the U.S. Consequently, Europe must defend itself and unite, if it can.

Is it possible for Europe to take responsibility and step up? Penurious and mismanaged Britain is among many countries that will struggle to put up 5% of GDP for our common defense. Right-wing parties in Europe is gaining traction and have different values than the traditional European countries promoting entitlements, mass immigration and economic uncertainty. The right-wing parties are eager to write the next steps of EU and European history. Slovakia and Hungary have been promoting working closer with Russia and work for peace. The EU is struggling with high energy prices and a lack of a common policy of how to tackle this.

Britain’s rejection of the European market is being hastily forgiven, now that the old central core of Germany, France and the UK needs to regroup. Creating a Europe united less by geography or trade than by center-left ideals allows the notion of including Canada or others who choose to share the resistance to right-wing values and the U.S. This seems to be a losing formula as Trump is getting ready to impose tariffs and that the EU should show more interest in finding a peaceful solution in Ukraine.

A Europe led by Germany’s AfD, France’s National Rally and Britain’s Reform would have a very different agenda and this is a possible scenario given the lack of support for the traditional parties. They would be focused on cutting endless and destructive immigration, they would work closer with the U.S. and they would promote peace in Ukraine and work closer with Russia. Italy’s Georgia Meloni has shown that in power a right-wing party is doing an excellent job and can be trusted.

One overwhelming problem that confronts all the continent is immigration. The European countries have done a horrible job and Muslims are a growing part of the population in several European countries, in certainly in Germany, France and the UK. Given the pressure from the right-wing parties and the success of the Trump anti-immigration policy, the European pro-immigration leaders are feeling the pressure and finally taking action. Keir Starmer made a first step arrangement with Emmanuel Macron to exchange migrants. Migration is the poison the far right feeds on and rightly so. The establishment and the center left parties have truly destroyed much of their own countries and culture. Immigration must stop.

Recently, German Chancellor Merz was in London to sign a wide-ranging pact promoting cooperation on defense, economic growth and tackling illegal migration. The treaty features a mutual assistance clause specifying a threat to one nation would be regarded as a threat to the other, the founding principle of NATO no longer guaranteed by the U.S. president. Britain is not likely to formally rejoin the EU any time soon, but this mutual warmth makes inching towards a Swiss or Norwegian relationship look plausible.

This warmth is reciprocated these days by the British people, many more wanting to return to Europe, with an even larger majority regarding Brexit as a bad error. At the same time, the British PM is increasingly unpopular and support is steadily growing for Reform and Nigel Farage. There are still years to the next election, but momentum is already growing for political change.

Macron brought with him a promise to loan the Bayeux tapestry to the British Museum, to travel to Britain for the first time in 900 years, a greatly celebrated gesture. According to the Labour party, the future for Britain is in Europe, or as close as possible, building a unity with France and Germany around defense and the economy with closer cooperation within NATO and the EU. France and Britain feel they are close, based on their colonial thinking and they are both important global powers. In reality they are not as the U.S. and China are driving the global economy. On the contrary, the main reason for a change in the Europeans action is that they will lose power if they continue down the same path. Both leaders are tremendously unpopular, and they are trying to regain foothold before it is too late. The UK, France and Germany are underperforming and losing their identities, and the leaders are running a hail Mary to change course and to stay in power. Europe is continuing its decline and there is no easy solution in sight. Britain is not necessarily rejoining Europe, but they have no other option than to try to work closer together again as they are struggling in virtually all areas.