The German election and consequences
The German election is over, and it was a resounding win for the right parties, CDU/CSU and AfD. Out of the 630 seats in parliament, they gain 208 and 152, respectively. The other parties won 120 for SPD (Social Democrats), 85 for the Greens, 64 for the Left and 1 for SSW. This major shift away from the ruling SDP, making the worst election ever in history with 16% of the votes, is to some extent related to Trump’s efforts to change Europe. CDU/CSU will most likely not want to work with far-right AfD, but will rely on SDP and potentially the Greens to form a government. That will likely back-fire long-term, as AfD will continue to grow its base in western Germany and might become the largest party in the next election.
The fact that there is a fear of AfD among the elite and establishment, is likely a problem for the votes, who gave AfD 20.8% of the vote, or more than 10 million votes. Elon Musk openly supported AfD in the German election, making the party more legitimate. AfD is truly a German success story, doubling its vote from 2021, now the second largest party, and it will most likely continue to grow, in particular in the west. It is already the biggest party in former East Germany, and in the stronghold state of Thuringia, the party got more than 38% of the vote.
The incoming chancellor Friedrich Merz, the leader of CDU/CSU, has pledged to prioritize a strengthened Europe in order to achieve independence from the U.S. Also AfD wants to see a stronger Germany. This might have serious consequences for NATO, but that is along the lines of Trump’s thinking. He wants Europe to take more ownership of their own defense and pay for it, either in the framework of NATO or on their own. In fact, a Germany with greater strength of its own is exactly what NATO needs.
Responsibility for defending Europe was shared more fairly between America and European allies during the Cold War, when West Germany, the UK and other maintained significant military establishments of their own. But in the decades since the Soviet Union imploded, Europe’s most advanced nations have let their capabilities diminish. More than 500,000 West Germans were serving in the military when the Berlin Wall was torn down in 1989. Today the number of citizens on active duty in the united Germany is about 180,000. These paltry service number are not only an indication of military unreadiness, but they are also a symptom of widespread European unwillingness to fight.
As Trump sees it, America is getting ripped off by NATO allies with the money and men to provide for more of their own defense, but which choose to have America provide it instead. They are getting a free ride, or at least a heavily subsidized one, off America’s taxpayers. Political elites throughout Europe are not just selfish, they just don’t want to spend more on defense. Maybe they fear that the nations’ already unsustainable welfare systems will collapse? By making the U.S. shoulder a hugely disproportionate share of the cost for defending Europe, they will now have to deal with a president who puts America first.
Germany urgently needs a broad-based national institution to unite its still divided east and west. The alienation of the former DDR, East Germany from the West is what supplies AfD its electoral base. A society ready to take greater responsibility for its national borders in a military context is more likely to be serious about protecting them in the context of migration as well. Eighty years after World War II ended, Europe faces danger not from German militarism, but from an inadequate moral, as well as material, investment in defense. Europe needs a renewed spirit in self-reliance.
The German election is a wakeup call for Europe that it is time to change. The focus has been on a woke agenda, open borders, green energy and costly social programs. Reality is that voters instead want less or no immigration, reduced unemployment, stronger defense and less EU bureaucracy. This goes hand in hand with Trump’s nationalistic agenda. Germany and other European countries will need to rework their national agendas.