Russia’s continued advances
The Pentagon’s decision to halt some weapons shipments to Ukraine blindsided even people who are usually closely briefed on such matters, including members of Congress, State Department officials and key European allies. The surprise move has fueled concern and frustration, including among top Republicans. The pause was driven by Pentagon policy chief Elbridge Colby and a small circle of advisers over concerns that certain weapons stockpiles in the U.S. were running low.
The decision to halt the weapons shipments to Ukraine seemed to be made with little coordination within the administration after massive cuts to the National Security Council shrank the once-powerful policy body to a fraction of its former size. The move caused bewilderment and whiplash in Ukraine and raised questions across the Atlantic about whether America was stepping back permanently from military support of Kyiv.
According to the State Department, there is still a need for military support, particularly air defense like Patriot interceptors, long-range rockets and conventional shells. Across the Atlantic, European diplomats and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s team were scrambling to find out why the U.S. had abruptly frozen aid once the White House confirmed the news. Neither Zelenskyy nor the European Union received advanced notice, according to a European official and a Ukrainian adviser. The episode underscores the outsized role that Colby is playing in the agency and how tightly decisions are being held within some parts of the Pentagon’s ranks.
Colby was one of the primary authors of the 2018 National Defense Strategy during the first Trump administration. He is also heading up a Pentagon review of the AUKUS submarine pact with Australia and the United Kingdom.
At the same time, Russia continues to advance and now controls Luhansk as US halts some weapons pledged to Ukraine. The Russian governor of Ukraine’s eastern Luhansk region claimed it had been entirely conquered, making it the first of the four eastern Ukrainian regions Russia has annexed that it fully controls. The other three regions are Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. Undoubtedly, Russian forces have inched towards reconquering the entire territory in the intervening 33 months. Through such small but constant conquests, Russia has given its offensive in Ukraine an inexorable feeling.
The increase in scale and intensity of Russian unmanned air attacks this year, and particularly since bilateral talks between the warring sides resumed in May, have led Ukrainian military experts to conclude that Moscow is marking Ukrainian territory it intends to launch a ground war against.
Russia continues to gain ground in Ukraine as they are advancing slowly but steadily. Russia has a larger and more advanced military, including a larger air force and more advanced weaponry than Ukraine and it is starting to show. Russia has been able to exploit Ukrainian vulnerabilities, such as troop shortages and delays in military aid and have managed to annex territory in eastern and southern Ukraine and controls significant territory. Since Biden left the presidency, the U.S. is not talking about Ukraine joining NATO and wants to find a peaceful solution and an end to the conflict. Russia’s goals have been consistent and are regime change, prevent Ukraine from joining NATO, incorporate Russian-speaking areas in eastern Ukraine and Crimea into Russia permanently and Ukrainian denazification so people can live there safely.
Trump used to say that he would be able to end the conflict in 24 hours. That has proven to be difficult, primarily as the two countries don’t really seem interested in a peace negotiation. Maybe too many parties are making too much money from the current situation. However, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine presents a complex situation with no easy solutions. Both sides are deeply entrenched, and the war’s trajectory will likely be shaped by a combination of military actions, diplomatic efforts, and the evolving political landscape.
There are indications that Russia and Ukraine are open to direct peace talks, though significant obstacles remain. The recent shift in the U.S. administration’s approach to the conflict, with a focus on brokering a peace deal, has created new dynamics. Through diplomatic efforts, a negotiated settlement could be reached, potentially involving territorial concessions and security guarantees for Ukraine. Trump has been preoccupied with the Middle East for a while, but hopefully he will start focusing more on Ukraine soon. It is time to stop the killing and find sustainable peace.