South American leftist regimes
The U.S. should pay more attention to the development in South America and in Mexico. Several countries including Chile, Brazil, Colombia and Mexico have elected leftist government, which are relatively anti-U.S. and may seek closer cooperation with China and Russia. It may not be a return of the “Pink Tide” of leftist governments that swept into power across South America in the early 2000s and were largely swept out again amid a conservative backlash in the mid-2010s, but the region’s left has been showing signs of a dangerous revival.
A resurgence of the pink tide was kicked off by Mexico in 2018, and further established by Bolivia in 2020, along with Peru, Honduras, and Chile in 2021, and then Colombia and Brazil in 2022, with Colombia electing the first left-wing president in their history. In 2023, center-left Bernardo Arévalo secured a surprise victory in Guatemala, and in June 2024, Claudia Sheinbaum won the Mexican presidency in a landslide, a continuation of Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s left-wing government. This is in addition to far-left authoritarian countries such as Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua.
In October 2020, Bolivia returned the Movement Toward Socialism to power in the first presidential election since Evo Morales was ousted, and the following year Pedro Castillo, a far-left teacher with no previous experience as an elected official, won Peru’s presidential election. Gabriel Boric, a former student protest leader and leftist legislator, became the youngest president in Chile’s history after taking office in March 2022, while Gustavo Petro became the first leftist president in Colombia’s modern history last August. And former Brazilian president Inacio Lula da Silva returned to office this year after defeating the far-right former president Jair Bolsonaro in last October’s election.
However, the conservative wave that followed the Pink Tide, beginning with Bolsonaro’s victory in Brazil in 2018, has not yet entirely receded. In Uruguay, conservatives took control of the government in 2019 from the leftist Broad Front coalition that had been in power for a decade and a half. Guillermo Lasso, a conservative former banker, won Ecuador’s presidential election in May 2021 and was recently succeeded by Daniel Noboa, a center-right newcomer to politics. In Paraguay, the right-wing candidate of the ruling Colorado Party, Santiago Pena, won the April presidential election there. And in Argentina, far-right libertarian president Javier Milei took office in December, after winning the country’s presidential election in October.
Corrupt Venezuela’s regime remains as the last holdout of South America’s original Pink Tide. But the Bolivarian revolution that began under former president Hugo Chavez has transformed into an economic and humanitarian disaster under his successor, Nicolas Maduro. The attempt to dislodge Maduro and replace him with Juan Guaido in 2018 gained the support of the U.S. as well as governments across the region and the world. But that effort flagged, and Guaido was ultimately replaced as the leader of the political opposition, which is now struggling to maintain relevance.
Major advances in the region are also in danger. Colombia’s fragile peace process faltered after former president Ivan Duque’s hostility to the deal resulted in half-hearted implementation of its measures. Petro has promised to revive the deal with the FARC while seeking a broader peace with other insurgencies and armed groups that still operate in the country, but so far, his efforts have delivered disappointing results. Meanwhile, the illicit drug trade is booming, as is organized crime, even as corruption continues to flourish.
Peru’s Castillo was removed as president in December 2022 after a shambolic 18 months in office that culminated in an attempted self-coup, setting off protests and a political crisis that continues to threaten the country’s democracy. And in Ecuador, Noboa won a snap election called by Lasso to end the country’s political paralysis. A region that until recently was a haven of democratic stability now seems to be struggling to find its way. In new port recently opened in Peru. This port that is associated with China is called Chancay. It is a large, newly built megaport constructed by the Chinese company COSCO Shipping Ports, considered a key gateway for China to access South America.
How will Washington approach relations with the region’s new wave of leftist leaders to counter Russian and Chinese influence? A standoff between Ecuador and Russia over a proposed arms transfer to Ukraine foreshadows how global competition among great powers may play out in Latin America moving forward. If the region doesn’t learn from the episode, it will find itself vulnerable to much larger forms of economic coercion over the coming decade.
Right-wing and center-right governments still control Ecuador, Uruguay and Paraguay. In part a reaction to the years of leftist rule, the right’s rise in the late 2010s was also fueled by the emergence of major corruption scandals that tainted politicians and parties across the region. But the left has demonstrated resilience as a political force, even as a wave of anti-incumbent sentiment seems to be the most decisive factor driving voter behavior.
The drug trade is booming, particularly in Colombia, where cocaine production is at an all-time high. That has fueled violence and put state legitimacy at risk across swathes of the continent, including most recently the previously peaceful Ecuador. Some leaders, desperate for a solution, are responding with growing militarization. Meanwhile, labor advocates, Indigenous leaders and civil society remain vulnerable to political violence.
The humanitarian crisis in Venezuela is deepening, even as the standoff between Maduro and the opposition seems to have been won by the Chavista regime. Though his claim to the presidency was backed by much of the continent, along with Washington, Guaido failed to dislodge Maduro. Now Maduro, who oversaw the country’s economic freefall, appears to have decisively sidelined the opposition, in part due to the support of the Venezuelan military.
Moscow and Beijing have been eager to increase their economic ties to South America, leveraging the unease that was caused by the U.S. government’s mixed messages to the region. Washington has pushed back, warning that the two powers are looking to sow disorder on the continent.
In Mexico, 58 percent of Mexican voters elected left-winger Claudia Sheinbaum as president. A former head of government of Mexico City and a close ally of the former president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, Sheinbaum was the continuity candidate with a leftist agenda and target to consolidate power and in effect create a one-party state.
There are several reasons why the U.S. should pay attention and get more involved. From an economic and geopolitical aspect, Russia and in particular China are making inroads in the continent and in particular in the left-governed countries. The proximity to the U.S. should facilitate increased cooperation and trade. The U.S. needs to get more aggressive in combating drug trafficking and drug cartels. The U.S. needs to close the southern border for illegal immigrants, often involving elements of criminals. The U.S. needs to get tougher with countries opposing democracy such as Venezuela and Cuba and keep a close eye on Mexico. Trump might help to achieve these targets, even though his main focus will likely be China, the Middle East and Europe. However, South America and Mexico should get a closer look as many countries are heading in the wrong direction.