The end of the western alliance
After the chaotic meeting between Trump and Zelensky in the Oval office, followed by Zelensky’s meeting with his European allies in London, it is clear that there is a major disruption between Europe and the U.S. Trump’s return to power in the U.S. signals the demise of what has been called ‘the West’, the alliance between Western Europe and the United States, forged in the two world wars of the twentieth century and solidified during the Cold War. The fall of the Berlin Wall had already weakened this bond, but it is now likely in the process of being severed once and for all.
The U.S. has been shifting its focus away from Europe towards Asia and China for years. Trump in particular views Europe as week and woke, with the wrong cultural values. This trend began under Barack Obama, who initiated a de facto withdrawal from Europe and its neighboring regions, most notably by choosing not to intervene against Bashar al-Assad in Syria. The Biden administration’s strong support for Ukraine and obsession with NATO expansion temporarily slowed this disengagement, but there was little doubt that the trajectory would continue.
Beyond these geopolitical shifts and the underlying geo-economic dynamics, Trump’s presidency marks a decisive and likely irreversible acceleration of this trend. Under his leadership, the U.S. is openly breaking with the values that once defined the shared heritage of ‘the West’: democracy, the rule of law, inalienable human rights, the right to physical and social security, international law, and a rules-based multilateral order. Trump wants instead to focus on the American voters and will not continue wasting money on Ukraine.
In practice, however, ‘the West’ had often strayed from these ideals. European states behaved disgracefully towards their colonies and their inhabitants during the wars of independence, while the U.S., during the Cold War, readily supported brutal dictatorships to counter the USSR, from overthrowing Mohammad Mossadegh in Iran to Salvador Allende in Chile. The post-Cold War era was no better, as demonstrated by the disastrous invasion of Iraq.
The U.S., once a champion of multilateralism, did not wait for Trump to undermine global institutions. Washington had long been criticizing and defunding the United Nations, UNESCO, and the World Trade Organization. It refused to ratify the Statute of the International Criminal Court, rejected the jurisdiction of the International Court of Justice, and declined to support the Kyoto Protocol, setting back global efforts to combat climate change. The ‘America First’ doctrine predates Trump.
Until now, the gap between Western practice and professed values had not led to an explicit repudiation of these fundamental principles. Both Europe and the United States chose to tolerate this double standard. However, under Trump, the U.S. has reached a decisive break with the Enlightenment’s legacy. Trumpism appears to be a lasting shift in American history.
Europe, too, may succumb to illiberalism and authoritarianism. This is the aspiration of Europe’s far right, which seeks to capitalize on the ‘Trump/Musk effect’, bolstered by formidable technological and financial resources. In with nationalism, out with immigrants, in particular Muslim. Their mission is made easier by the mainstream right, which has increasingly absorbed far-right ideas. However, Trump and Musk’s excesses, and their likely failures, may have a repelling effect on European voters. Before Musk, Henry Ford, the pioneer of mass automobile production, was a fervent pro-Nazi and a vocal advocate of a United States-Hitler alliance. He even came close to running for the US presidency on this platform.
If Europe resists the Trumpist wave, democratic Europe will find itself increasingly isolated from the U.S. Washington will not only withdraw support against other adversaries but may become actively hostile, challenging Europe on diplomatic, economic, and even military fronts, as seen in the Greenland dispute. Trump is already preparing tariffs against Europe.
One of the paradoxes of the current moment is that an intensely Atlanticist European leadership will be tasked with severing ties with the United States. This reversal is a classic political phenomenon. It was Charles de Gaulle, brought to power by the supporters of French Algeria, who ultimately granted Algeria independence, not socialists like Guy Mollet or François Mitterrand. Today, Kaja Kallas and Ursula von der Leyen may be better positioned to break with the United States than left-wing leaders, who are often accused of anti-Americanism.
In this new reality, democratic Europe must break its geopolitical encirclement by forging alliances with the Global South, Brazil, South Africa, India, Indonesia, and others, to counter the competing pressures of a Trump-led United States and the Xi-Putin axis This is highly unlikely though, given the global power of the U.S. and the reluctance from countries like India and South Africa to build deeper ties with Europe. Such an unlikely alliance would help Europe avoid isolation, sustain a rules-based multilateral order, and reduce its technological dependence on both China and the United States.
Several European nations already have longstanding ties with Global South countries, largely due to colonial history. However, these relationships remain deeply scarred by that past, as seen in recent events. Colonialism is still strong in both former British and French colonies, and they want to more away from the former colonial powers. More than sixty years after de-colonization, it is likely not possible to move beyond these traumas. The European Union, not former colonial powers like Britain and France, could lead efforts to build a new partnership with the Global South.
This strategy requires Europe to overcome internal xenophobia, abandon the fantasy of a ‘fortress Europe’ that preserves racial homogeneity, and engage with Latin America, the Maghreb, and Sub-Saharan Africa as equal partners. Europe must implement a coherent immigration policy, encourage non-Europeans to study on the continent, and facilitate cultural exchange by welcoming artists and intellectuals from the Global South.
This idea is in line with woke thinking and will likely further weaken Europe. It also necessitates increased investment abroad, even as Europe faces immense internal challenges, including the need for technological catch-up, the green transition, and stronger defense capabilities. This will be difficult as Europe seems to be in decline.
Europe is already the world’s largest provider of development aid, but this support is fragmented across its member states. Rather than allowing China and Russia to dominate the Global South following the dismantling of USAID, the EU must coordinate its development assistance at the supranational level.
Additionally, Europe must significantly increase its contributions to climate finance, ensuring the survival of the Paris Agreement despite Trump’s opposition. In this regard, close cooperation with China remains necessary to counter American obstructionism, though such an approach will require major financial commitments.
Europe must also help its Global South partners develop industrial sectors to reduce their and our dual reliance on China and the United States for critical raw materials and components essential to the green and digital transitions. This should inform Europe’s approach to trade agreements such as the Mercosur deal, despite its imperfections.
However, at present, this seems impossible as realism, xenophobic and reactionary forces advocating for confrontation with the Global South are gaining ground in Europe. The EU’s silence on war crimes and violations of international law in Gaza, East Jerusalem, and the West Bank since 7 October 2023 has further deteriorated its standing in the rest of the world. Trump is getting stronger, Europe is getting weaker, it seems.