Syria in transition

The fall of Assad’s regime in December 2024 marked the end of more than 50 years of dictatorial rule in Syria. Assad’s departure presents the international community with a historic opportunity to stabilize and integrate a long-standing thorn in the heart of the Middle East. However, after 14 years of debilitating conflict, Syria is profoundly fragile and the transition underway is complex and faces an array of extraordinary challenges.

The Syrian transitional government is the provisional government of Syria, formed on 29 March 2025 under President Ahmed al-Sharaa. The government implemented the Constitutional Declaration of the Syrian Arab Republic, a provisional constitution ratified by al-Sharaa, establishing the basic law of Syria for a five-year transition period from 2025 to 2030. The Constitutional Declaration sets a presidential system with the executive power at the hands of the president who appoints the ministers, without the position of prime minister.

In May 2025, Syrian president Ahmed al-Sharaa met with Macron in France. It was his first official visit to a Western country since becoming president. In May, he met with Trump in Saudi Arabia, marking the first meeting between American and Syrian heads of state since Bill Clinton and Hafez al-Assad convened in Geneva in 2000. Since then, a number of Western governments have lifted the sanctions on Syria, most notably the U.S. and the UK. In January 2026, during a visit to Damascus, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen met with al-Sharaa and announced a substantial financial assistance package of approximately €620 million, to be disbursed in 2026 and

Since al-Sharaa came to power, things are rapidly changing in Syria. Seeking sanctions relief, investment and a measure of international legitimacy, the new leadership, despite its past association with Al Qaeda, has signaled moderation. There have been killings of the Druze people and of the former dominant Alawite minorities. Now, with war raging in Iran and Trump eager for geopolitical wins, including regime change in Iran and the disarmament of Hezbollah in Lebanon. Lebanese president Aoun is also eager to free his country of Hezbollah, but his own army is too weak. A defeat of Hezbollah could potentially lead to closer ties between Lebanon and Israel and also Syria and Israel. The Middle East is in transition and the importance should not be underestimated. There is enormous wealth and potential in the region and peace could bring closer economic partnerships and wins for many, including Syria.

So the convergence of the Iran war, the broader fighting that emerged after the October 7 Hamas attack and American political urgency is bringing matters to a head, and placing al-Sharaa at the center of it. He is being asked to signal that Syria has not merely disentangled itself from Iran and Rusia, but is actively repositioning Syria towards that West. That carries risks. The memory of Syria’s long domination of Lebanon still lingers, making any cross-border involvement politically explosive. Damaskus has moved cautiously, deploying forces to its own border, signaling defensive intent, and avoiding any overt commitment. But Syria cannot indefinitely occupy the middle ground it now inhabits. It seems investment, reconstruction, and a decisive, visible path out of isolation. The U.S. has already begun to ease sanctions. But the price of full normalization will be strategic clarity. Hezbollah is where the clarity will be tested. This will impact the critical question of a return of Syrian refugees. About 6.8 million, roughly a third of the pre-war population, fled during the decade plus civil war. According to estimates, almost a million refugees have gone back, many of them from Jordan and Lebanon. But the overwhelming majority of the millions who reached Europe have not.

Security is surely part of the reason, but there is also something simpler. They have a very comfortable life in Europe. Also, until real investment arrives in Syria, the economy will not recover. Jobs are scarce, services are unreliable. For a Syrian who has built up a decent life in Europe, to move back to limited or few prospects does not seem appealing. Many migrants, realistically, have no intention of going back. Migration from the Middle East and Africa to Europe is often one-directional. There is simply no comparing the quality of life. And that loops back directly to geopolitics. Without a clear break from the alliances and behaviors of the past, an attractive economic future will remain out of reach for Syria. So, 16 months after the fall of Assad, Syria stands at an inflection point. The old order is gone, but the new one is not yet fully defined. It is up to Syria to move in the right direction.