Is the ceasefire with Iran a good idea?

Trump is trying to ride out the war against Iran and come out on the winning side despite the Iranian’s regime’s resilience. The war has been going on for more than a month and the U.S. and Israel have killed many of the leaders and destroyed most of the military infrastructure. Trump has failed to build an international alliance and there are increasing criticism within the U.S. Now, the U.S. and Iran have entered a two-week ceasefire with the goal to find a solution to the conflict and to open the economically important Strait of Hormuz for continued delivery of oil. The provisional truce comes more than a month after the US and Israel launched coordinated attacks on Iran. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who has been mediating negotiations, said that the ceasefire was effective immediately.

Trump said he had agreed to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks if Tehran agrees to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. In a post on Truth Social, Trump said he agreed to the provisional ceasefire because “we have already met and exceeded all military objectives”. This comes after he earlier warned the US could take Iran out “in one night” and that a “whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again” – threats that drew condemnation from UN Secretary General António Guterres and Pope Leo XIV. Later, Trump said that the U.S. will be working closely with Iran and talking tariff and sanctions relief. On his Truth Social platform, he added in a separate post that a country supplying military weapons to Iran will be immediately tariffed, on any and all goods sold to the United States of America, 50%, effective immediately. There will be no exclusions or exemptions. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the U.S. military would be making sure Iran complies with the ceasefire and comes to the table for a deal. Iran has agreed to allow vessels through the Hormuz Strait for two weeks, with their passage coordinated by the Iranian military.

Iran has also issued a 10-point plan, which includes, among other things, the complete cessation of war in Iran, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen, full commitment to lifting sanctions on Iran, the release of Iranian funds and frozen assets held by the U.S., and a full payment of compensation for reconstruction costs to Iran. It also says, “Iran fully commits to not seeking possession of any nuclear weapons”.

Israel has backed the deal but says it does not include Lebanon, renewing strikes in the Tyre and Nabatieh areas in the south of the country. Trump’s press secretary Karoline Leavitt later also said that Lebanon was not included in the deal. Netanyahu said that Israel supports Trump’s decision to suspend strikes against Iran for two weeks subject to Iran immediately opening the straits and stopping all attacks on the U.S., Israel and countries in the region. It is unclear how involved Netanyahu was in Trump’s decision-making but at a news conference later, the Israeli leader said the ceasefire came into effect “in full coordination with Israel”.

Pakistan, which has been mediating the negotiations, has invited the delegations to meet in Islamabad to further negotiate for a conclusive agreement to settle all disputes.

Strikes appeared to be continuing after the ceasefire, as Kuwait reported Iranian attacks which damaged power and desalination plants as well as oil facilities. The U.S. and Iran appear to have contradicting positions on what this ceasefire entails. And Iran and the U.S. have held two rounds of talks in the past year. Both times saw military tensions escalate in the middle of negotiations.

The leaders of France, Italy, Germany, Britain, Canada, Denmark, the Netherlands, Spain and the EU welcomed the ceasefire and in a joint statement urged a swift and lasting end to the war. Trump is very unhappy about the lack of support from his NATO allies. It seems that the U.S. has realized that there will not be a regime change in Iran and the focus is to destroy the country’s military capabilities and to find a peaceful solution and exit. This is a disappointment for people around the world who had hope this would be the end of the terror regime in Teheran and a possible return of the Shah and long-term for democracy in Iran. For Trump, the pressure is building and the war is increasingly unpopular. With the upcoming midterm elections, the republicans are losing in polls and are eager to finish the war and start focusing on pressing domestic issues. This is a shame as there has been an opportunity to once and for all get ride of the murderous regime in Iran and make Iran part of the surging financial zone of opportunities in the region. Isreal will likely continue to fight Hezbollah in Lebanon as this is a once in a lifetime opportunity to defeat the terrorist organization, but, unfortunately, it looks like the U.S. is trying to find a quick exit strategy.