The continued decline of the UK
There are endless problems for the troubled and unpopular Labour government. There are signs of incompetence everywhere, the economy is struggling, there are potential trade issues with the U.S. and there are many reports of an increased level of crimes across the country. On top of that, the UK has wasted billion of taxpayers’ money in supporting Ukraine and there is an unhealthy flow of immigrants that the UK simply can’t integrate. How can the UK get back on track again? Maybe it is time for a new referendum and rejoin the EU. After all, every UK poll now shows a majority longing to rejoin the EU.
For two years now every single UK poll has shown a majority now want to return to the EU. Of course they do, since every reliable source shows the continuing damage done by Brexit in almost every sphere. Brexit was really a revolution against the establishment and the voters spoke up. The idea might have misfired though as the UK is part of Europe and benefited from the close economic ties. This disappeared with Brexit and it is not easily replaced for an isolated island. The colonial days are over and there is no British Empire that can replace the lost ties in Europe. Furthermore, the weak Keir Starmer Labour government and his pathetic foreign secretary David Lammy have basically managed to severely damage the ties to the U.S. by attacking Trump and sending English election workers to the U.S. to work on the Kamala Harris campaign. Not a smart move.
The promised Brexit benefits are nowhere to be seen. As for regained sovereignty? You can’t see it, touch it or eat it, but loss of influence across both the channel and the Atlantic is hard even for Brexiters to ignore. Immigration, underlying cause for that vote, has risen, losing Europeans but increasing migrants from distant countries, primarily Africa. Does the UK really need more Muslims? Few voters can avoid hearing at least some of the true effects of what they voted for: £27bn has been lost in EU trade in the first two years. British goods exports have lost 6.4% a year, and 40,000 finance jobs have departed for the EU from the City as they relocated to Paris and Frankfurt. British food exports to the EU have fallen by £3bn a year according to the Centre for Inclusive Trade Policy. The Office of Budget Responsibility says GDP would be 5% higher had the UK stayed in the EU.
Now with a government and House of Commons overwhelmingly filled with pro-EU MPs, maybe it is time to rejoin the EU? How peculiar it seems that Britain’s passionately pro-EU prime minister Starmer adamantly refuses any hint of rejoining, not the EU, the customs union nor the single market, and not even EFTA. Probably not as politicians do want to risk anything. They have learned the hard lesson, wary of the optimism bias that makes pro-Europeans seize with delight on every hopeful opinion poll. That same optimism bias led weak PM David Cameron to call the Brexit referendum, believing that as prime minister he could ensure “remain” would win against those “leave” supporters he arrogantly dismissed as “fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists”.
If there was another referendum to overturn the last, this time joining conditions would be harsher. Britain has lost its lucrative EU rebate and other favors it had negotiated. This time the UK would have to abandon sterling to join the euro, and no doubt many other conditions. A referendum will simply not happen again.
That’s why, instead, step by step, the UK government is tiptoeing towards a reset with the EU, quietly as every step is greeted by the Tory media as a Brexit betrayal. Rachel Reeves, Chancellor of the Exchequer, the first since Brexit to attend a meeting of EU finance ministers, told them last month, “Division and chaos defined the last government’s approach to Europe.” Behind the scenes emissaries are talking substance: Keir Starmer’s chief of staff made a low-profile visit to Brussels before Christmas. Starmer’s meeting with President Macron last week was his seventh since taking office.
The reset may disappoint unless Starmer relaxes his strict red lines. Brussels rightly warns there can be no cherry-picking bits of a single market the UK refuse to join. Britain wants barriers down, trade eased especially for food, professional qualifications recognized, musicians allowed to travel to perform freely across the EU. Not without things Brussels wants which include EU students attending UK universities to pay the same fees as British students pay, and a youth mobility scheme for under 30’s to travel and work freely.
The weak Labour government has not agreed to that. The concern is that Starmer is too fearful of Brexit betrayal accusations. Maybe it time to ignore them, as the proposed youth mobility scheme is, in fact, highly popular with most British people in all polls. Other obstacles will include fishing rights coming up for renegotiation soon, of minimal economic importance to either country but arousing high-voltage political emotion on both sides of the channel. Farming disputes likewise.
These trifling issues are trivial to anyone standing back and looking at the state of the world. Trump threatens to impose higher tariffs, and this would impact the UK significantly. At the same time, the eurozone economy staggers, as does Britain’s. Germany and France are in political turmoil and there is an upcoming election in Germany on February 23rd that undoubtedly will see a new government. The UK is making small moves to work closer with the EU, but the UK government is too weak and lacks vision. Instead, they need to work closer with the U.S. and re-create the special relationship, both politically and economically. This is unlikely due to the discomfort with Trump, so the UK will likely continue its path of decline. It is just a matter of time before Scotland wants to leave and, in the future, it would not be surprising if Northern Ireland wants to join Ireland. The UK is indeed a sinking ship.