The downfall of the Social Democrats in Germany
On the final weekend of June, Germany’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) will convene for its party conference. Despite their presence in government, the significant ministries they secured during coalition negotiations, and several notable policy achievements, the event is unlikely to be a resounding triumph.
There are several reasons for this underlying tension. Firstly, the party suffered an electoral debacle in February, barely securing 16.4% of the vote. Secondly, the party faces a significant lack of clear direction; many members are unsure how social democracy can effectively enhance its public profile, and there is certainly no consensus on the future trajectory of contemporary social democracy.
In essence, there is a prevailing sentiment that social democracy must shift to the left to reclaim its role as the advocate for ordinary people, many of whom have felt abandoned amidst increasing uncertainty in recent decades. However, during times of polarization and widespread irrationality, social democracy is also expected to serve as a beacon of reason, led by individuals who are trusted by the political center.
One particular source has sparked considerable debate recently: the controversies surrounding peace, security, and defense policy. A group of long-serving SPD party officials published a manifesto on peacekeeping in Europe, denouncing the rise of factions in Germany and Western Europe that primarily view the future through a lens of military confrontation and advocate for hundreds of billions of euros in rearmament. The paper invokes the spirit of Ostpolitik and specifically references Willy Brandt, presenting him as a witness to the policy favored by the manifesto’s authors, the policy of freedom.
Pursuing a policy of détente with authoritarian military and police states is feasible, or at least worth attempting, for two reasons: first, the world is not comprised solely of peace-loving democracies; second, the concept of exporting democracy and regime change has not proven entirely successful in recent decades.
Realism teaches us that, in an emergency, one must negotiate with the devil. A democratic socialism that resists the temptations of authoritarianism will never sacrifice the values of freedom, fundamental rights, human rights, and political freedoms.
All of these are words that mean little to regain voters’ trust. Social democracy in Germany cannot survive without vision. The SPD must rediscover its purpose and emotional power. The bitter end of Olaf Scholz’s unpopular traffic light coalition government dashed any short-term hopes of success. But the SPD’s fundamental problems go far beyond a single lost election. The 2025 German federal election merely marked the lowest point to date in a trend that has persisted for more than two decades, and it is not limited to Germany. Social democracy is suffering from a loss of trust that dates back to the 1990s.
The ambition to actively shape the future, guided by a normative vision of a better society, gave way to a concept of politics based on forming temporary voter coalitions. The goal became to identify the perceived interests of specific social groups and cater to them in a tailored manner. This seemingly pragmatic approach, best described as transactional due to its business-like nature, was superficially successful in the short term. Gerhard Schröder replaced Helmut Kohl as Chancellor, and “New Labour” under Tony Blair governed the UK for over a decade. But this supposed formula for success is increasingly proving to be a boomerang.
In both Germany and the UK, a strong mood for change after years of conservative rule, combined with the personal charisma of Schröder and Blair, played a significant role in their electoral victories. Social structures have changed since the 1990s. In Western democracies, traditional social milieus have steadily eroded. It has become increasingly difficult and fragmented to identify social groups with supposedly homogeneous interests and address them politically. Real-life environments are more diverse, interest constellations more contradictory, and often less stable than assumed.
Secularization and the decline of industrial labor have contributed to the dissolution of political allegiances. This is particularly evident in the voting behavior of young people. in the 2021 German federal election, they mostly voted for the Greens and the liberal FDP, while four years later, the Left and the right-wing AfD were ahead. Political allegiances are especially volatile in this age cohort.
Decades of transactional politics have led to a profound loss of identity and trust for social democracy. When politics is primarily seen as a string of offers to different interest groups, it loses its overarching compass. The fundamental question, what does social democracy actually stand for, what are its long-term goals for tomorrow’s society, can no longer be convincingly answered. This lack of a clear, recognizable identity is fatal in today’s context, which is shaped by uncertainty and rapid change.
The level at which political competition takes place has shifted. With the rise of right-wing populism, politics has become increasingly emotionalized. Right-wing populists clearly and often successfully conduct their political battles using pathos. They stoke fear, mobilize anger, offer simplistic solutions, and appeal to gut feelings.
After Britain’s Labour Party recently lost a by-election to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced a tough stance to reduce net migration. If the German experience serves as a guide, this approach will fail. Why? Because setting a quantitative reduction target suggests that the issue can be solved rationally, that it will disappear once a certain number is reached. There is only one solution and that is no migration at all.
The diagnosis makes clear that continuing with transactional strategies will not lead the SPD out of its crisis. What is needed instead is a fundamental reorientation. A renewed social democratic vision for the 21st century. This vision must inspire hope for the future, build on the traditional social democratic promise of progress. The new policy must be translated into concrete, comprehensible goals and projects. It must provide guidance and a timeline that clearly extends beyond a single legislative period.
The German SPD’s crisis is deep, but not insurmountable. However, overcoming it requires the courage to return to the party’s old strength, the ability to formulate a convincing and hopeful narrative for a better future and to inspire people to rally behind it. This is not easy as the core voting bloc, the blue-collar worker, is reduced in size, the party has increasingly become a migrant party, and the party’s endless entitlement promises that make no economic sense. The best the party can do is to try to modernize, stay in the middle as a moderate alternative and be willing to work with other parties in coalitions. They should protect their own citizens instead of catering to migrants and move in a more nationalist direction. Maybe then, the social democrats can reach 25% of the votes and start rebuilding the party.