What is next in Ukraine?
One week after Trump’s summit with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, the Kremlin seems in no hurry to build on progress that Trump said was made in his bid to end the war in Ukraine. Trump has indicated that there would hopefully be a quick process and to get Ukraine involved soon for a new meeting. However, any momentum from their nearly three-hour meeting in Anchorage, Alaska, appears to have slowed, though administration officials say they are not giving up on a solution and will keep working to broker an elusive peace deal.
Russia’s top diplomat said in an interview with NBC News that Putin is prepared to meet with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, though the agenda for a sit-down is “not ready at all.” That pronouncement seemed at odds with Trump’s assertion that he had spoken to Putin by phone and had begun arranging a meeting between the Russian leader and Zelenskyy. Once that meeting takes place, Trump said he would sit down with both men in pursuit of an accord.
Trump has sounded more tentative the last couple of days and seems to have taken a let us see what happens approach. Trump said that it will crystalize over the next two weeks where things are heading in terms of a peace agreement. It is clear that Trump is hopeful, but there is also a sense of impatience. In that two-week period, Trump will evaluate what options the U.S. has moving forward in case the parties are not willing to try to reach a peace agreement. The most likely path would be more intense sanctions and tariffs on Russia. There is also a chance that Trump would approve advance military equipment for Ukraine and back off the conflict, but to give Ukraine a chance to strike more forcefully. There is also a possibility that if Ukraine and Russia are not seriously interested in a sustainably peace agreement, the U.S. will back off and get less involved.
Stopping a conflict rooted in ancient grievances over land and national identity is no small task. Further delays could work to Putin’s advantage, allowing his troops to cement gains made on the battlefield. One Western official said Lavrov’s remarks have frustrated the White House, as they suggest that Russia may be backtracking on commitments that Trump believes he extracted from Putin. Still, Trump administration officials said they are not giving up on the prospect of a peace deal.
Trump raised hopes that a breakthrough might be in sight with his face-to-face meeting with Putin, followed by his sit-down three days later at the White House with Zelenskyy and European leaders. However, after that cross-country round of diplomacy, the path to a truce remains as murky as ever. egotiations are unfolding against the backdrop of the White House’s public bid to land Trump the Nobel Peace Prize. An unpopular figure in Europe, Trump would face tough odds even if he mediates an end to the war that’s fair to Ukraine.
For his part, Marco Rubio is coordinating an effort among U.S. allies to protect Ukraine from future Russian attacks once the war ends. A security guarantee is crucial to Zelensky, who has said he wants a concrete plan in a little over a week. Rubio led a discussion Thursday with the national security advisers from Britain, Finland, Germany, France and Italy, as well as diplomats from the European Union and NATO, a U.S. official confirmed. A source familiar with the meeting said progress continues, adding that the blueprint for Ukrainian security must be in place ahead of any potential summit between the Ukrainian and Russian leaders.
The Europeans clearly still do not understand that a NATO alignment or membership for Ukraine is a massive problem for Ukraine. Biden’s obsession with NATO’s eastward expansion is what started the conflict in Ukraine in the first place. Despite this, the European Union’s ambassador to the U.S., Jovita Neliupšienė, told reporters: “Russia cannot have the veto for E.U. or NATO membership, and decisions on territories are solidly Ukraine’s decisions and international borders must not be changed by force.” Europe is delusional and as a result, there can only be peace with U.S. leadership.
Should negotiations bog down, that could spark a movement in Congress to slap secondary sanctions on countries that buy Russian energy or do business with Russia. It is not clear if this is a good strategy as those countries would pivot away from the U.S. and find other trading partners, and likely align closer with China. Russia’s demands for peace are the same as in the beginning of the conflict. They are international recognition of Crimea as belonging to Russia, independence for Luhansk and Donetsk, de-militarization, which would include stay away from NATO, and de-Nazification of Ukrainian politics. At this point, Crimea should not be an issue, it seems reasonable that Luhansk and Donetsk will be independent or could even become part of Russia. They are after all Russian speaking. Ukraine will definitely have to stay out of NATO and there should be a democratic renewal of Ukraine. If Ukraine is willing to agree to these conditions, there should be a path forward for peace in a near future.