The Gulf States will have to choose

A majority of the 22 Arab League member states do not formally recognize Israel or maintain diplomatic relations with it. Key Arab nations without formal recognition include Algeria, Iraq, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Somalia, and Yemen. Of these Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Iraq and Qatar would be considered Gulf States, meaning they are bordering the Persian Gulf. Countries recognizing Israel are Bahrain and UAE under the Abraham Accords umbrella. And then there is Iran too. Some of them have formed strong bands with the U.S., but have decided to continue rejecting Israel.

Iran has turned its war with the U.S. and Israel into a direct assault on its Persian Gulf neighbors, targeting not just American military and diplomatic installations based in these Arab states, but on Arab capitals themselves, and on the world’s energy lifeline. This weekend, Iranian president Pezeshkian apologized to Gulf states for Tehran’s strikes, but soon after, the Revolutionary Guard launched more drones and ballistic missiles at the same Arab neighbors Tehran claimed to regret hitting.

Iranian strikes on Saudi oil facilities last week forced the shutdown of the kingdom’s largest refinery, and damaged US diplomatic missions in Riyadh and Dubai. Qatar suspended some of its natural gas production after being struck twice. On one day alone, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait endured barrages of nearly 200 ballistic missiles each. Tehran’s sustained assault makes clear that the era of hedging is over. It is time for the Gulf States to choose a side in the Middle East. Their enemy is not Israel and they might start to realize that after the surprise attacks by Iran. Frankly, Iran is not necessarily the enemy either, it is the Iranian criminal regime that is the enemy, but likely not for much longer.

For years, Gulf leaders have tried to balance between Washington and Tehran, publicly distancing themselves from any potential U.S. military action against Iran, while relying on American security guarantees to shield them from the regime’s aggression. It is clearly a strategy that no longer holds up when missiles are falling on Dubai and Doha. Not even Oman, long seen as Tehran’s preferred Gulf interlocutor, was spared. Iran knows it cannot defeat the U.S. outright, so it is trying to make the war unbearable for America’s partners. If it hits airports, ports, energy infrastructure and commercial hubs hard enough, it expects Gulf leaders to decide that siding with Washington is too costly.

Much the Gulf has tried to turn itself into a tourism and financial hub, it remains the backbone of global oil and liquefied natural gas markets. Sustained strikes on oil facilities, export terminals, LNG infrastructure or shipping lanes could bring this industry to its knees and it would also likely turn tourist away. If oil exports are disrupted or LNG shipments slowed, Gulf economies bleed. That reality alone may soon push Gulf governments to conclude that staying on the sidelines is more dangerous than entering the fight or at least aligning themselves closer to the U.S. and Israel. The Gulf States can join in building a formal, defense-focused regional security architecture that integrates air and missile defense with shared intelligence. In fact, the basic architecture already exists. In 2024, when US CENTCOM guided an international defense effort to thwart Iran’s missile and drone attacks on Israel, multiple Arab states joined in. Now, Washington should turn that ad-hoc cooperation into a permanent regional shield, linking Gulf radar networks, air defenses and early-warning systems with American and Israeli assets in the region. That means real-time intelligence on Iranian launches, integrated air and missile defense coverage across Gulf airspace, and joint command centers capable of intercepting threats.

It would turn today’s patchwork of national defenses into a single protective umbrella over the Gulf, freeing American forces now defending Gulf skies to focus on the source of the danger. It would send Tehran and others a message that the Gulf is part of a coordinated security bloc that won’t be intimidated by missile terror. Some Gulf leaders will hesitate, worrying that overt alignment with Washington or in particular Jerusalem will spark domestic backlash and paint a target on their backs. The choice is for the future and it is time to get over the notion that Israel does not exist and it must be destroyed. It seems like Israel is part of a peaceful Middle East and the Gulf States can choose the right side and build partnerships, it will also help the new government of Iran.