Trump’s State of the Union address
Trump held a long speech, the longest State of the Union ever, around one hour and 45 minutes and he was as expected a showman, tormenting the democrats and high lightening everything positive that he though has been achieved by the administration the last year. Political commentators had speculated that the speech would offer Trump a chance to reframe the national conversation ahead of a midterm season which his party enters trailing in the polls. In Trump’s view though, there is no reason to change anything, the republicans are on the right track and the message to his party and to the country was clear: Full steam ahead.
Trump largely stuck to the script on trade, foreign policy and the economy, with his rhetoric mirroring the speeches he has given across the country to sell his agenda to the American people. But it’s not clear that will meaningfully shift the republican’s electoral fortunes amid polls that show flagging support for both Trump and the GOP, and Tuesday’s speech did little to show a fresh vision of what he wants the party to accomplish this year in these areas. More important is likely to show consistency and that the economy actually is getting better, inflation under control, immigration limited and how the government will deal with the issue of affordability.
Trump’s speech did mark a slight shift on immigration, as republicans warn that his aggressive ICE deportation campaign could cost them their razor-thin congressional majorities. Unlike last year, when the president vowed to conduct the largest deportation operation in American history, he stayed hyper focused on border security and his efforts to deport illegal alien criminals.
Trump tried to sell his trade agenda by talking about the deals with foreign leaders he has notched and the peace agreements he has leveraged tariffs to reach. He even teased that the money generated from the duties might even one day replace the income tax system. But some allies say he still missed the mark on his tariff message, a significant problem because polls continue to show voters are skeptical of broad-based levies and fear they will raise prices.
Trump made clear that America’s differences with Iran are significant, but he held off on announcing the launch of a military operation against the Islamist regime in Tehran. The fact that Trump stopped short of a military move may briefly calm some of the jitters in the Middle East, including among Arab states nervous about the potential for a regional conflagration. Still, Trump could change his mind in a matter of hours. Plus, he did not say exactly what Tehran needs to do for him to disperse the massive U.S. armada he’s placed in the region. Overall, Trump spent relatively little time discussing foreign affairs considering what a huge part of his agenda it has been. He appeared to be following advisers’ urging to emphasize his domestic agenda, especially affordability issues, ahead of the midterms.
Trump offered a relatively thorough accounting of economic policies that the GOP has put in place over the past year to boost Americans’ pocketbooks, from no tax on tips to so-called Trump accounts that will serve as investment vehicles for babies born in the next few years. He also announced a new initiative to give some lower-income, private-sector workers access to retirement accounts with annual matches from the federal government, and he rolled out new voluntary agreements with technology firms to attempt to ensure that they pay for the enormous new energy costs associated with data centers. Trump had a standout moment when he sought to draw a contrast with democrats, asking members of Congress to stand if they agreed that the first duty of the American government is to protect American citizens, not illegal aliens. Not surprisingly, the democrats remained seated and this is certainly noted by the voters. They still have their mindset on an open border.
To most clear message with the address was how polarized the parties are. There is no common ground any longer and the democrats seem petty, bitter and unhappy. The only time both parties joined and cheered was when the U.S. hockey team was announced. The midyear election campaign has now officially started and it will be a bitter fight until November. The democrats are ahead in the polls, but Trump and the republicans have time to see the economy and the job market improve and have a clear and consistent message to the voters.
The Trump administration also have a list of actual achievement from the first year such as success in securing the southern border, with zero illegal aliens being admitted into the interior of the U.S. for nine consecutive months, the lowest murder rate in big cities in at least 125 years, mortgage rates dropping below six percent for the first time in four years, the stock market setting 53 record highs since his 2024 election win, and 18 trillion in investment commitments into the U.S. This is a good start and something to build on for the elections in November.