The war in Iran

Iran has been a thorn in the side of the U.S. and of Israel since the revolution in 1979, and both countries have been waiting for an opportunity to strike Iran. Israel probably more than the U.S. as Iran had developed proxy terror groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, attacking Israel many times. Trump has repeatedly tried to negotiate with the Iranian leadership, but to no prevail. There is a pattern in Trump’s behavior as he and the U.S. government actually are trying to avoid armed conflicts and they go far to find agreements, both in Venezuela and Iran, but also in Cuba and Ukraine. Then the negotiation derail, Trump acts with force as seen in Iran with Operation Epic Fury. Every country is slightly different, but in the end, Trump is seeking peace and a good relationship with each country. The U.S. will not invade Cuba, but will keep putting pressure on the island and build closer ties slowly but steadily. Venezuela will have to follow U.S. orders and they most likely will. In Ukraine, the U.S., according to Trump, the U.S. is willing to work with Russia to find a solution and the U.S. is reluctant to get more involved in the conflict.

With Iran though, it is different as Iran has been a major sponsor of state terrorism for decades. The U.S. and Israel said they attacked to destroy Iranian military infrastructure, especially missile forces and potential nuclear-related facilities, which posed an imminent threat. Targets included missile bases, military leadership, and government facilities in cities like Tehran, Isfahan, and Qom. Israel has been keen for years to attack Iran as their missile program and regional proxies threatened Israel’s security. Israel has long viewed Iran as its main strategic enemy, especially because Iranian leaders have supported armed groups hostile to Israel and this is a rare opportunity to change the power structure in the Middle East and potentially eliminate Iran as a threat.

Early strikes also targeted senior Iranian officials and killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, trying to disrupt the country’s leadership and military command. Some statements from U.S. leaders suggested a broader goal, encouraging Iranians to overthrow their government. This will not be an easy task though given the lack of organized opposition, the willingness of the regime to kill protesters and the lack of access to weapons for the protesters. In January, the regime already killed tens of thousands of protesters, primarily young people, and people are likely more careful now given the recent brutal crackdowns.   

Iran retaliated by launching missiles and drones at Israel and U.S. bases across the Middle East, including in Gulf countries. The fighting quickly expanded into a wider regional conflict involving multiple countries and disruptions to global oil shipping routes. One major reason for attacking Iran was their work towards getting a nuclear bomb. By 2025–2026, Iran had accumulated large amounts of uranium enriched to about 60% purity, which is very near the 90% level needed for weapons-grade uranium. Experts estimated Iran could enrich enough uranium for one nuclear bomb in about a week if it chose to. Iran had roughly 400–460 kg of 60% enriched uranium, potentially enough for several weapons if further enriched. This stage is called breakout capability. It means a country can produce weapons-grade material very quickly, even though building an actual nuclear weapon takes longer. Even after producing weapons-grade uranium, several additional steps are required, designing and assembling the nuclear explosive device, testing or validating the design, miniaturizing it to fit on a missile or aircraft, integrating it with a delivery system. Experts estimate this could take months to a year or more after obtaining the material. As Iran has declared that they would like to destroy the state of Israel and all efforts to negotiate a solution had failed, the U.S. and Israel finally decided to strike.

It is difficult to speculate the future of Iran. Iran’s Assembly of Experts is set to hold an emergency session this week to formally announce Mojtaba Khamenei, a son of the late Supreme Leader, as the next leader, despite opposition from some members who warn against hereditary leadership. The future of Iran is uncertain right now. Analysts usually describe several possible paths, depending on politics, war, and economic reform. Some analysts believe sustained protests or elite divisions could eventually weaken or transform the current system.

Short-term, it is likely that the regime stays in power, but given the growing economic pains for the country and the lack of international support, it will be increasingly isolated, both domestically and abroad. There are several options given the current uncertainties and the ongoing war. The regime stabilizes through increased authoritarianism, further isolating itself, a transition to a more nationalist, populist, or military-backed government, similar to a Turkey scenario. Another possibility is the collapse of the central government leads to a power vacuum and chaos, with potential for regionalized, armed conflicts, similar to Libya. The potential for a lose-lose outcome exists, where the downfall of the current regime does not immediately guarantee stability, leaving the country prone to long-term volatility. Israel and the U.S. will not let go easily though and their goal is to destroy Iran’s military capabilities and if possible facilitate regime change.