Venezuela
Is Venezuela prepared for a US attack, as Washington ramps up forces? Venezuela this week announced what it called a major nationwide military deployment in response to the presence of growing U.S. naval forces off its coast. The US also unveiled an operation, called Southern Spear, which it said was intended to target narco-terrorists in the Western Hemisphere.
The escalation has raised alarm in Caracas, where officials worry the U.S. may be using these operations as a pretext to force president Nicolas Maduro out of power. But is Venezuela really prepared for a U.S. attack or invasion? What are its military capabilities? And what might be the calculus driving the decisions of Trump and Maduro, respectively?
Venezuela is a country in crisis and has been escalating since the Bolivarian Revolution, which began with a 1999 Constituent Assembly, where a new Constitution of Venezuela was imposed. The government’s populist social welfare policies were bolstered by soaring oil prices, temporarily increasing social spending, and reducing economic inequality and poverty in the early years of the regime. However, poverty began to rapidly increase in the 2010s. The 2013 Venezuelan presidential election was widely disputed leading to widespread protest, which triggered another nationwide crisis that continues to this day. Venezuela is officially a federal presidential republic, but has experienced democratic backsliding under the corrupt Chávez and Maduro administrations, shifting into an authoritarian state.
Tensions between Washington and Caracas have been spiraling for weeks, as the Trump administration has hit a series of boats in the Caribbean Sea and, more recently, the Pacific Ocean, claiming they were carrying individuals smuggling narcotics into the U.S. The 20th strike took place this week. In all, about 80 people have been killed. The Trump administration has not presented any evidence to back its assertion that the bombed boats had narcotics or drug smugglers on them, or that the vessels were even headed to the US. It has also not offered any legal justification for its actions, which many experts believe violate international law. In the U.S. though, his actions are widely supported as part of the war against drugs.
At the center of Washington’s allegations is the claim that Venezuela’s Maduro is driving the narcotics smuggling to the U.S. in cahoots with cartels. Meanwhile, the U.S. has dispatched the USS Gerald R Ford carrier strike group into Caribbean and Latin American waters, a powerful naval formation built around the world’s most advanced and largest aircraft carrier.
The Ford is a nuclear-powered supercarrier equipped with advanced technology, sailing alongside guided-missile destroyers and support ships, with more than 4,000 personnel and dozens of tactical aircraft ready for rapid deployment.
As Washington expands its military presence in the region, analysts say the stated goals of the mission have broadened and may not fully align with the capabilities of the forces being deployed. The administration has said that the deployment is to stop the flow of illegal drugs to the U.S., and also to degrade the cartels, but it seems that over time the U.S. goal has expanded to include anti-Maduro regime activities. Analysts argue that the Ford is not well suited for counter-drug operations. It is better suited to attack adversaries either at sea or on land.
As a result, Venezuela’s government announced a massive mobilization of troops and civilians to prepare for any potential US action. Venezuelan Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez announced a higher phase of the Independence Plan 200, a military response mechanism ordered in September to strengthen defense measures against the U.S. presence in the Caribbean. About 200,000 troops have been deployed throughout the national territory for this exercise.
Padrino Lopez also stressed that the country’s military forces were united. He said that more than 90% of the people reject any aggression against Venezuela, dismissing opposition groups he described as minority, subversive, fascist”, and claiming they no longer exist in the national political landscape. He framed the mobilization as part of a broader stand against “imperialist aggression” and Washington’s attempts to act as the world’s hegemon and the world’s police, insisting that Venezuela remains committed to its independence, liberty and sovereignty. According to analysts, Venezuela’s armed forces indeed are, for the most part, closely tied, politically, economically, and institutionally to the movement known as Chavismo that has shaped the Venezuelan state for more than 20 years. The military doctrine is based on policies laid out by the late Hugo Chavez, and it is based on members being patriotic, popular and anti-imperialist. Maduro took over as president after Chavez died in 2013.
According to Global Firepower’s 2025 Military Strength Ranking, Venezuela places 50th worldwide out of 160 countries assessed in terms of military capabilities. It falls behind regional militaries such as those of Brazil, Mexico and Argentina, and sits in a similar range to Colombia, Chile, and Peru. According to a report released by CSIS this week, Venezuela’s air force is small and only partially functional. Roughly 30 of its 49 aircraft are believed to be operational, and only three F-16s can still fly, due to a lack of spare parts caused by U.S. sanctions.
According to Military.com, a platform focused on the U.S. military and veteran community, Venezuela has invested billions in Russian-made weapons systems, including missiles and fighter jets, intended to deter or challenge U.S. ships and aircraft. Venezuela has at least 21 operational Su-30s, a Russian fighter aircraft developed in the 1980s. The Su-30s can be armed with supersonic antiship missiles, such as the Kh-31A, which are a significant threat to naval warships operating near Venezuela.
In the event of a conflict, Venezuelan airfields and aircraft would likely be among the first U.S. targets. The U.S. has deployed F-35 stealth fighters to the region, and they are likely intended to counter both Venezuelan fighter-jet maneuvers and the country’s air-defense systems. On the ground, however, analysis suggests that Venezuela maintains a significantly larger troop presence and greater firepower than the limited U.S. forces currently positioned offshore.
According to Global Firepower, from a total population of 31 million, the Venezuelan military has active military personnel of 337,000. Of them, 109,000 are active members, 220,000 belong to paramilitary forces, and the remaining 8,000 are reserve personnel. But experts say these numbers mask a more troublesome reality for Venezuela: Its military forces have been hampered by years of limited warfighting training and a focus on internal security. Its navy, meanwhile, is no match for the US and its uncontested control at sea and the U.S. is militarily far superior to Venezuela.
Trump has justified the recent military buildup by arguing it is necessary to curb the flow of drugs into the U.S. But many analysts believe this is an effort to increase pressure on Nicolas Maduro. Maduro is fully aware of this strategy and is responding accordingly. The U.S. clearly wants a regime change in Venezuela and will keep adding pressure on Maduro. It is unlikely that he would step down voluntarily, so at this point it is more like a chess game and it is unclear what the outcome of the conflict will be.