Why diesel matters
Suddenly people are not talking about the high gas prices, instead the focus is on diesel. There are a few significant differences between gas and diesel. Gas engines use spark plugs to ignite fuel; diesel engines ignite fuel using compressed, heated air. Gas engines typically offer smoother, quieter acceleration; diesel engines produce more torque, making them better for heavy loads. Gas is common in passenger cars and SUVs, while diesel is widely used in trucks, buses, and heavy-duty vehicles. Gas and diesel are both produced from crude oil in petroleum refineries. The main difference is how the crude oil is processed and which hydrocarbons are used to make each fuel.
Diesel prices are becoming a major issue, in particular as the midterm elections are around the corner. Prices have increased from around $3.70 per gallon a year ago to about $6.17. This is putting a lot of pressure on inflation and it is very bad timing for Trump and the republicans as the economy is the main voter concern in the upcoming elections.
Diesel is important because it powers much of the global economy, particularly transportation, agriculture, construction, and industry. Its high energy content and fuel efficiency make it especially valuable for heavy-duty work. Most heavy-duty trucks use diesel to transport food, consumer goods, and industrial materials over long distances. Tractors, harvesters, and other agricultural machinery rely heavily on diesel to plant and harvest crops. Excavators, bulldozers, and other heavy machinery commonly use diesel engines because they deliver high torque and can operate under demanding conditions. Diesel generators provide backup power to hospitals, data centers, businesses, and remote communities. Diesel shortages or price increases will raise transportation and production costs, contributing to inflation.
From a geopolitical perspective, oil refineries must produce different petroleum products in varying quantities, and diesel supply depends on refinery capacity and configuration. Wars like the ongoing conflict with Iran and geopolitical tensions can disrupt oil supplies, refining, shipping routes, and diesel exports. Higher diesel prices increase freight costs, affecting food prices, manufacturing, and inflation. Diesel is essential because it keeps goods moving, food being produced, construction projects operating, and critical backup power available. Although electric vehicles and alternative fuels are expanding, diesel remains particularly important for heavy-duty transportation and industrial activity.
In order to deal with the current diesel price and inflation, Trump recently announced a new diesel deal with Russia to the surprise of many U.S. allies. Experts argue the agreement could undercut Western economic pressure on Russia and solidarity efforts with Ukraine while doing little to lower fuel prices. The move is expected to further strain Washington’s relationships with its European allies.
In a social media post, Trump said Russia agreed to immediately supply more than three hundred thousand tons (2.25 million barrels) of diesel to U.S. and global markets, followed by an additional five hundred thousand tons in November and a million tons immediately thereafter. Shortly after the announcement, the Treasury Department issued a temporary license suspending U.S. sanctions on Russian diesel deliveries until April 2027. Beyond lowering fuel prices, the Trump administration reportedly hopes the deal will signal Washington’s openness to working with Moscow and bring the country back to the negotiating table to end the war.
Trump has indicated he believes the diesel deal with Russia will bring down fuel prices, which spiked in 2026 after the start of the Iran war and increased Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries. Trucks, farm equipment, and construction machinery all use diesel, and higher fuel costs have passed through to U.S. consumers. The latest Consumer Price Index showed that prices rose 0.6 percent in September, which is more than economists expected, bringing the annual inflation rate to 3.7 percent. Polls indicate that this could affect Republican candidates in the upcoming midterm elections, which have increasingly centered on cost-of-living concerns.
It might be too late and too little though. Analysts predict the deal will do little for diesel prices, especially before the November 3 elections, given that the volumes of Russian diesel to be released will barely make a dent in the global supply deficit. Although the deal is unlikely to lower diesel prices, it will benefit Russia as sales will generate revenue. Trump has also told Ukraine to stop attacking Russian refineries. Zelenskyy responded that Ukraine would do so only if Russia did too, or the U.S. provided more Patriot interceptors. He paused strikes on Russian energy infrastructure for three days but has since resumed them to counter ongoing attacks.
Based on the new development, Trump is trying to get talks started with Russia to end the conflict in Ukraine, but Europe and Ukraine are uninterested at the moment as Russia still holds around 20% of Ukraine and gaining ground. The diesel business likely will not have much of an impact and will only have a small impact on U.S. diesel prices. This will likely impact the election in November with republicans losing the House of Representatives and there is even a chance that the democrats will win the Senate. This would in effect making it difficult for Trump to get anything done domestically during his final two years in power. Current polls show the following: 68% that the democrats will win House and Senate, 24% for democratic House, republican Senate, 1% republican House, democratic Senate and 8% that republican will keep both. So the republicans have a lot to do during the last few weeks of the campaign.