Austria’s political shift

Mainstream media and most political parties seem to view conservatives or nationalists as far-right and portrait them as something dangerous to society. They likely base their fears on experiences in the 1920ies and 1930ies, but todays so called far-right parties are all based on democratic values and should not be feared. This has been evident in numerous European countries where far-right parties are part of the government or support governments such as Switzerland, Italy Hungary, Finland, Serbia, and Sweden to mention a few. They are also strong in many other countries such as Germany, France, the Netherlands and in Austria. There has been no impact on the democracy in any of these countries. On the contrary, voters’ choices are being respected.  

According to mainstream media and most political parties, the Austrian far-right FPÖ’s likely return to government raises concerns about the erosion of liberal democracy and the center-right’s complicity in enabling it. Given that the party received the most votes, it seems natural that they should be in the government as this is the will of the people and should be a consequence of democracy. The fear of the center and left parties is worrisome.

At the start of the year, Austria marked the thirtieth anniversary of its accession to the European Union in 1995. However, this celebration was soon overshadowed by the collapse of coalition negotiations among the People’s Party (ÖVP), the Social Democrats (SPÖ), and the liberal NEOS. The talks fell apart when NEOS withdrew, quickly followed by the ÖVP. Despite a shared goal of blocking far-right leader Herbert Kickl and keeping the Freedom Party (FPÖ) out of government, their common ground proved insufficient. There is an inherent mistake to keep parities with a large amount of votes out of the government based on the premises that you disagree with their policies. This will further erode the position of the mainstream parties and they will lose votes.

Shortly after the mainstream parties failed to agree, the president invited FPÖ leader Kickl to form a government. His party achieved its best-ever result in last September’s national election, garnering 29 percent of the vote. Although the ÖVP had previously ruled out forming a coalition with the “Kickl-FPÖ” but not the party itself, they soon reversed course after Kickl was handed the mandate. Members of the ÖVP who had labelled Kickl a “security risk” and vowed not to work under his leadership suddenly went silent on their earlier objections, preparing instead to enter talks with the far-right. The ÖVP finally realized that in order to embrace democracy, they need to accept political reality and voters’ wishes. Otherwise, the party will be destroyed in the next election.

Thus, three decades after joining the EU, Austria may soon have its first government led by the far-right, anti-EU FPÖ. The ÖVP, often referred to as Austria’s Europapartei (“Europe Party”), appears willing once again to partner with the far right, despite the FPÖ’s Eurosceptic rhetoric, admiration for Hungarian leader Viktor Orbán, and its affiliation with the far-right, Eurosceptic “Patriots for Europe” faction in the European Parliament. The ÖVP seems ready to turn a blind eye to positions that, in principle, contradict the party’s pro-European values. They know they have to in order to survive.

While the ÖVP’s sudden shift on Kickl may surprise some, it is consistent with the party’s history of downplaying concerns about the far right. As early as October, citing “political traditions,” party members argued that the “Kickl-FPÖ,” as the election winner, should be given the opportunity to form a government. This certainly makes sense.

There are two plausible explanations for why the ÖVP advocated for Kickl to receive the president’s mandate. First, they may have calculated that the FPÖ would fail to secure a coalition partner, as all other parties categorically refused to work with the far-right. This scenario would position the ÖVP to step in and “finish the job,” enhancing its reputation as a reliable party. Alternatively, the ÖVP may have anticipated that the FPÖ, lacking other options, would turn to them for a coalition, providing two strategic advantages: increased leverage in negotiations and the ability to portray itself as a reluctant but dutiful participant, prioritizing Austria’s need for stable governance. This approach would also spare the ÖVP from prolonged and likely fruitless negotiations with the SPÖ, given their ideological differences on key issues such as socio-economic policy.

Regardless of the rationale, the ÖVP’s willingness to allow the far-right to lead coalition talks appears to be calculated but at the same time clever. After all, they want to remain relevant. A far-right government now seems highly probable. Even if initial talks between the FPÖ and ÖVP fail, it would likely lead to new elections in which the far right is best positioned to win. Voters are tired of open borders and endless immigration. Polling at around 35 percent, the FPÖ is significantly ahead of its rivals and reportedly better financed to mount another campaign. This dynamic gives the ÖVP little incentive to undermine negotiations, which would only strengthen the FPÖ’s hand.

Christian Stocker, the new ÖVP chairman, has already signaled the party’s readiness to engage with the far-right, outlining conditions such as respect for the rule of law and media freedom, independence from Russia, and a united stance against antisemitism. He also emphasized Austria’s need to remain a “reliable partner” for the EU.

Austria is heading in the right direction and listens to their voters. Will they do the same in Germany in February? The new Austrian government will be based on democracy, and they will show other countries in Europe, that it is fine to be far-right and to be in government. This will happen in an increasing number of European countries, and this is the wish of voters. This political shift in Austria will have consequences for other countries and Austria is truly a democratic role model.