Does Trump care about Europe?

In recent days, the Trump Administration has again put a bomb under the Atlantic Alliance by showing that its interests are not aligned with those of Europe. This was again clear during the week as President Trump spearheaded a new attempt to find peace in Ukraine. The Europeans were not happy with his proposal and demanded that Ukraine join NATO, get all territory back and get Crimea. Europe must be delusional or at least unrealistic, but it also sends a signal to the U.S. that something is wrong with Europe, that they are not living in the real world.

The bulk of security responsibility still lies across the Atlantic and most Europeans still believe that the Pax Americana, or the American security umbrella, will secure Europe’s future safety. This has been the case since WWII and Europe has refused to pay their fair share and also refused to build up a competitive military industry. Trump is trying to change this by having them pay more of their GDP to NATO. If Europe continues to delay decisive measures, it risks leaving itself vulnerable to geopolitical shifts and strategic setbacks at the same time as the U.S. is moving away from Europe.

Europe’s defense industries still take years to convert appropriations into ammunition, and its political class still clings to the hope that history might be persuaded to move more slowly. The re-election of Trump as president, combined with a splintering of geopolitical alliances, has not yet been included in actionable results and strategies in the Old Continent. Besides delivering political support and military hardware to Ukraine, or putting sanctions on Russia, Europe’s costs are without real pain.

Without prompt action, delays will only increase the eventual costs and risks of strategic failure. Europe must prepare for a direct role in a major interstate war on its borders now, or face higher consequences later. If no action is taken, further delays will only result in a higher eventual bill that Europe cannot afford.

Trump’s attempt to work with Ukraine and Russia in good faith to achieve peace also shows how little agency Europe has at present as they were not consulted or even considered. As most military analysts indicate, a deal will leave Europe geographically and strategically exposed. Europe’s eastern flank would remain under permanent pressure.

For the Continent, the strategic center of gravity is shifting, necessitating the replacement of American deterrence with its own capacity. Europe will need to break with its favorite psychological habit, the notion that someone else, the U.S., will be stepping in. It is time for Europe to realize they have to pay for their own security. European governments should stop the bickering and arguing in place and decide. There is still the mandatory unanimous voting requirement and countries like Hungary, Italy and Slovakia often disagree.

Since the end of the Cold War, the Peace Dividend has been destructive to Europe’s defense industrial complex and capabilities. As some stated, Europe’s defense base has atrophied under three decades of peace dividends. Primary concerns are about the facts that shell production is lagging, vehicle repair depots are overbooked, and, Europe’s missile-assembly lines are thin. There are endless bureaucracy and inefficiencies that is holding Europe back. The European Commission’s emerging European Defense Industrial Strategy and the EU Rearm initiative remain too timid.

The main problem for Europe is a psychological one. At present, Europe’s elite still speaks as if American protection is a law of nature. Many Europeans, even after the years of volatility and Trumpism, still believe that Washington’s internal oscillations are temporary. This could be the case, but Europe’s future can no longer be anchored in security arrangements and the vagaries of the U.S. electoral cycle. After decades of stability in the U.S.-European relationship based on the U.S. spending money on Europe, we have finally entered into a new era in which American commitments are no longer set in stone. On the contrary, Trump is more focused on the relationship with China and he is tired of Europe taking advantage of the U.S. Europeans will need to adjust to a new reality. A new era of European power is needed. Europe’s addiction to Washington’s support has ended, it will need to act on its own. The choice is now before Europe’s leaders. The U.S. and Trump still care about Europe, but they are tired of sending money to ungrateful Europeans and the focus will remain America First.