The end of communist Cuba?

Trump is putting more pressure on Cuba, the island just south of Miami, Florida, about 90 miles. Since 1959, Cuba is officially a communist country, governed by the Communist Party of Cuba, which is the only legal political party in the country. The Cuban system is based on Marxist–Leninist ideology, meaning the state plays a central role in the economy and political life. Historically state-controlled, though in recent years Cuba has allowed limited private businesses and some market-style reforms.

The nearly seven-decade-old regime is currently facing its most severe economic and political crisis since the fall of the Soviet Union. Several key factors are shaping the situation, in particular intense U.S. pressure. The United States is escalating its pressure on Havana. The Trump administration, bolstered by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, has heavily targeted the Cuban regime’s financial lifelines, following the collapse of allied regimes in Venezuela. The U.S. has used sanctions and has offered conditions-based packages involving humanitarian aid and internet access to force a transition. The U.S. finally sees a chance to get rid of the Cuban regime.

Domestically, Cuba is grappling with crushing shortages of fuel, medicine, and food. Years of austerity measures have pushed the populace to the brink, though this has resulted in widespread suffering rather than an organized internal rebellion. Regime Resilience: Despite lacking the major foreign benefactors it once had, the Cuban government has historically proven highly adept at internal purges, cracking down on opposition, and surviving decades of economic isolation. The future is highly uncertain for an already weak government, but the fundamental problem is systematic. Should there be incremental steps to loosen up the economy, create private alternatives and agree to some form of trade arrangement with the U.S., the Cuban economy would likely be able to transform and find a better path.

This week, the U.S. decided to indict former ruler Raúl Castro mainly for a criminal case tied to the 1996 shootdown of civilian planes and a broader push by the Trump administration to pressure Cuba’s government. The U.S. unsealed murder and conspiracy charges against Castro over the 1996 destruction of two planes flown by the Miami-based exile group Brothers to the Rescue. Four people, including U.S. citizens, were killed. U.S. prosecutors say Castro, then Cuba’s defense minister, helped direct or approve the operation. Cuba has long argued the planes violated Cuban airspace and that the country was defending its sovereignty. International investigations at the time concluded the planes were shot down in or near international airspace, which is why the incident has remained politically explosive for decades. But the legal case is only part of the story. Trump also using the indictment as part of a much broader hardline strategy toward Cuba such as expanded sanctions on Cuban officials, targeted Cuba’s intelligence and military apparatus, restrict oil flows to the island, and openly talked about political change in Cuba.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, whose family fled Cuba, has been one of the strongest advocates for tougher measures against Havana. The move is clearly politically motivated and unlikely to lead to an actual arrest. Castro is 94, remains in Cuba, and Cuba does not extradite its former leaders to the U.S. Opponents also argue Washington is escalating tensions for ideological and domestic political reasons, especially with Cuban-American voters in Florida.

Regardless of Trump and the U.S., the days of the old communist Cuba is gone. The country will have to transition in one way or another given its failing economy and need to reform.

A post-communist Cuba could develop in several different ways depending on how political change happens, how fast reforms move, and how much outside support arrives. The island has strong assets — education, healthcare capacity, tourism potential, geographic location, and a large diaspora — but also deep structural problems: low productivity, decaying infrastructure, shortages, state dominance, and emigration. There will likely be a few phases in this development over the next decade. The most probable near-term scenario would be that the Communist Party stays in power, but the economy opens gradually with private businesses legalized broadly, foreign investment expanded, state farms privatized or leased, tourism and manufacturing scaled up, currency controls loosened. There kind of reforms often lead to political upheaval as well and over time, the party might have difficulties to stay in power. These reforms will result in faster economic growth, more foreign investment and better consumer supply.

Looking at other alternative paths, one could look at countries in transition post communism such as parts of Eastern Europe after the Soviet bloc collapsed. If this happens, the Communist Party loses monopoly power, competitive elections emerge, and Cuba rapidly opens to private ownership, international finance, independent media, free political organization. Many post-Soviet countries experienced painful shock therapy periods before stabilizing. Cuba is in a phase of transformation and the death of communism in Cuba seems to be around the corner. The most likely alternative is that the party remains in power short-term but that the economy starts a phase of transformation and that the country will start moving closer to the U.S.