Monday Club | Key Takeaways — Beyond the Midterms: Economic, Geopolitical and Policy Outlook

This week, with record attendance, the Monday Club featured a panel discussion with Tara Hariharan — Co-Chief Investment Officer and Head of Global Research and Strategy, NWI Management LP, Matt Aks — Senior Strategist, Evercore ISI and Bodhi Ganguli — Senior Director, Macro & Country Risk, TIAA.

The following topics were discussed:

U.S., Europe and China – divergent growth drivers and risks

U.S. tariffs — likely to persist, with reshoring uncertain

AI investment and policy — federal gridlock, state-level risks

Middle powers and U.S. alliances — fluid partnerships, limited independence

A Democratic Congress — oversight, spending and bond-market risks

Europe’s options — self-reliance and points of leverage

Investment themes — defense, power and selective European opportunities

Key takeaways from the discussion were:

• The global outlook is increasingly uneven: U.S. growth is supported by AI investment and consumer spending, Europe faces structural challenges, and China combines industrial competitiveness with weak domestic demand.
• AI presents both an opportunity and a vulnerability: The scale of U.S. investment is supporting growth, but excessive dependence on the sector could amplify the consequences of a correction.
• Geopolitical fragmentation is becoming structural: Tariffs, technology competition, and uncertainty surrounding U.S. alliances are forcing governments and companies to reconsider their economic and security relationships.
• Europe faces a strategic choice: Greater defense and economic self-reliance will require stronger coordination, more investment, and difficult political decisions.

For a full event transcript, please join the Monday Club, and we will send it to you.

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