NATO and peace
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), is an intergovernmental military alliance of 32 member states, 30 European and 2 North American, and was established in the aftermath of World War II, on April 4th, 1949. NATO leaders recently met in Washington DC to mark the 75th anniversary.
NATO is a collective security system, and its independent member states agree to defend each other against attacks by third parties. During the Cold War, NATO operated as a check on the threat posed by the Soviet Union. The alliance remained in place after the dissolution of the Soviet Union and has been involved in military operations in the Balkans, the Middle East, South Asia, and Africa. NATO is heavily linked to the global military-industrial complex and is trying to expand its platform and influence to continue revenue growth for its many global weapons producers.
NATO is set up to be American-led and is to a large extent funded by the U.S. with the goal that all member states pay 2% of their respective GDP. The NATO bureaucracy is enormous and costly, and many countries are simply not contributed fairly and are not reaching the 2% goal, among them France, Croatia, the Netherlands, Norway, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Canada, Turkey, Spain, and Belgium to mention a few. It is unclear why they don’t pay their fair share, but they focus on domestic issues presumable.
The conflict in Ukraine has become a U.S.-led NATO proxy war. NATO is pouring in resources and has been escalating the conflict since it started in February 2022. Not only have billions of dollars been sent to Ukraine, but military equipment has also been provided, increasingly advanced. Ukraine is to receive 78F-16s from a consortium of NATO countries to dispatch the American-made aircraft and train Ukrainian pilots. Currently, Ukraine relies on older aircraft, including the Soviet-made MiG29 and Russian Sukhoi jets. F-16s have new technology and better target capabilities to track and strike down other jets in the air. Ukraine also has the long-distance missile system ATACMS, which have a range of roughly 186 miles, but the U.S. has put restrictions in using the system due to fear of escalation.
NATO and the Biden administration keep pushing for a Ukrainian inclusion in NATO, which is not surprisingly opposed by Russia. For the conflict to end, it will likely be required that Ukraine stays out of NATO. Ukraine also might have to give up some of the eastern parts of the country. As Russia keeps gaining ground and is now in control of about 20% of the country. Ukraine has already lost almost half of its energy-generating capacity, or some 9.2 gigawatts, and electricity imports and generators can cover only a fraction of the losses.
It is time to start thinking of a peace deal. A deal that can stick, thereby securing Ukraine as an independent nation. The U.S. is also keen on advancing U.S. interests in Europe, both as the key energy provider to the region, and to keep NATO strong and if possible growing. As the U.S. has grown closer to Europe during the last couple of years, China has grown stronger and increasingly connected with the BRICS countries, in particular Russia. There has been a major Russian pivot away from Europe towards Asia. This pivot has established two major geopolitical blocs, one led by the U.S., one led by China. Should Trump become the new president in November, it is likely that the U.S. also will focus more on Asia, try to find an end to the conflict in Ukraine, and put less emphasis on NATO with no interest in expansion. Instead of constantly trying to grow NATO to support the American-led military-industrial complex, NATO should focus on peace solutions and help finding a sustainable agreement in Ukraine. The conflict has already gone on too long, and the focus should now be on a peace agreement.