Next steps in Ukraine

Politicians and media only seem to be able to keep one item at the time on the forefront. At the time being, it is the Middle East and the war in Iran. There is 24/7 coverage and Iran is quickly disintegrating, its leaders killed by Israel, one by one, and it is just a matter of time before the regime collapses. At the same time, the conflict in Ukraine continues, now for more than four years, and efforts to halt the conflict seems to have ended. This week, Russia initiated a new spring offensive.

This week, Russia carried out one of the largest aerial attacks since the start of its conflict in Ukraine, launching 948 drones in a 24-hour period as it moved troops and equipment to the front line in what appeared to be the start of its new offensive. The strikes followed an overnight bombardment across 11 regions. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy issued a new appeal for allies to supply Kyiv with air defense munitions, warning that Kyiv, which relies on the U.S. for air defense systems against ballistic missiles, will face a deficit of missiles while Washington is focused on the US-Israeli war on Iran. Zelenskyy said that a security guarantees agreement that Kyiv has long sought from Washington had not yet been developed. The Ukrainian president had said in January that the document, which would ensure the U.S. and other allies would come to Ukraine’s aid should Russia attack again after the end of the war, was 100% ready and waiting to be signed.

Fighting continues in eastern Ukraine and Russia has moved heavy equipment and more troops to the front line. General Oleksandr Syrskii, the commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces, said Russian troops had in recent days made simultaneous attempts to break through defensive lines in several strategic areas. Russia, which holds about 20% of Ukraine, has moved its grinding war of attrition up a gear every year in spring, when snow melts and weather conditions for the troops improve. However, it has been unable to capture cities and has made only incremental gains across rural areas.

At this point, there is not a single clear path to ending the war in Ukraine and most realistic outcomes fall into a few broad scenarios, each with serious trade-offs. A deal between Zelenskyy and Putin could stop the fighting and Trump would likely have to be the facilitator. In the past, it seemed that the timing was not right and if Russia has the momentum and making progress, their incentive to stop advancing will probably diminish. A peace would entail Ukraine giving up some territory in the east, the Donbas, and stop talking about Crimea once and for all. There will have to be some security guarantees for Ukraine, possibly from NATO countries, in particular the U.S. There will have to be sanctions relief for Russia and invite them back to the global economic system. It seems that the U.S. will have to put some external pressure and mediation in motion to achieve a peace agreement in 2026. The European allies have proven unreliable and they ask for too much, such as no territory to Russia and Crimea to Ukraine. This is not helping the situation and it seems best to leave the Europeans out of any peace negotiations. However, a conversation for a resolution has not really started. It seems that both sides believe they can still improve their position and, in that scenario, the costs of compromise are politically very high. The Europeans and the U.S. are still sending arms and funds to Ukraine which keeps the conflict going. The most likely outcomes are either a negotiated compromise after prolonged stalemate, or a frozen conflict without a true peace deal, similar to Korea. In order to move the situation forward, the U.S. will have to take a more proactive role. This will not happen as long the U.S. is preoccupied in Iran, but it should be high on the agenda for the U.S once the time is right.