A safer world in 2025?
As the Biden presidency has unfolded, so have many global conflicts. There has been one problem after another since the inauguration, and it seems that the U.S. could have acted differently to prevent some of the tension. It started already from the beginning of the presidency with Biden’s constant talk of eastward expansion of NATO. This is clearly something Russia opposes. Biden used the same playbook as Obama, based on the Russian-hating political scientist and diplomat Zbigniew Brzeziński. He was a Polish-American democrat, who was Jimmy Carter’s National Security Advisor.
Apart from NATO expansion rhetoric, Biden began a sudden pullout from Afghanistan in August 2021 that dented the national credibility and his own reputation. There might not have been another long-term option than to pull out, but the U.S. certainly left suddenly, letting the Taliban take over, with tragic consequences with 13 Americans killed at Abbey Gate, and, more significantly, throwing millions of Afghan women to the wolves. Also, much of the $7.1 billion in military equipment and technology fell into the Taliban’s hand and were still operational. Then there was the message the Afghanistan bugout sent to the world. Putin saw the sudden withdrawal as proof America was in retreat.
Biden has struggled both domestically and internationally, much like Jimmy Carter. Biden is also a one-term president struggling with inflation and crimes at home. On the global stage, both pursued policies that too often treated American power as a problem rather than a solution, and both were rewarded with conflicts and aggression. To judge by Biden’s speech at the United Nations earlier this week, he has not yet come to grips with reality that his legacy is nothing else than a failure, in particular internationally. The world is in worse shape now than when he took office and there is a widespread belief that the world is closer than ever to World War III. Rarely if ever have things gotten so bad, so fast.
Like Obama, Biden tried to work with Iran to reach a nuclear agreement, with sanctions relief, and to get Iran back in the international community by diplomatic efforts. However, Iran smelled the weakness and expanded rapidly through their Middle Eastern proxies Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis. This resulted in Iran’s proxy attack on Israel on October 7th and an expanding war both in Gaza and in Lebanon. Biden has also managed to ruin relationships in the Middle East, in particular with Saudi Arabia.
The conflict in Ukraine continues and has in effort developed into a U.S. proxy war. The U.S. has already sent more than $150 billion to Ukraine, mostly via U.S. weapon producers, and continue to support the vast military-industrial complex. Biden’s constant talk about the importance of NATO eastward expansion contributed to the start of the conflict, but despite all support for Ukraine, they have not been able to make much progress and Russia has already secured more than 20% of the territory, primarily in the eastern part of the country, the Russian-speaking area. Biden leaves a legacy of dangerous talk and conflicts as the endless talk about expansion of NATO clearly will lead to increased tension and more conflicts as it basically creates a new Cold War. Biden has even mentioned expanding NATO to Asia, creating additional tensions with China. China has already increased aggressions against Taiwan and in general in their Asian area of interest.
There seems to be a need for global de-escalation in particular in the Middle East, in Ukraine and in Asia. The roadmap for peace would include stop talking about NATO expansion, the Europeans themselves do not even want that, stop sending endless amounts of money to Ukraine and try to focus on a peace settlement instead, and work closer with China but stay firm. 2025 will be an important year for word peace. At this point, the only positive event is that Joe Biden is no longer involved. That helps.