Is Trump messing up in India?

Five years ago, president Trump was warmly welcomed in India, and China condemned. Since then, the U.S. has moved even closer to India and the rivalry with China has intensified. However, the picture is starting to change recently due to Trump’s surprisingly aggressive tone against India. Consequently, Trump’s tariffs and shifting geopolitical winds have pulled India and China closer. This development could undercut the US-led Quad and lead to the emergence of new Asian trade blocs. The Quad, officially the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, is a diplomatic and strategic forum among the U.S., India, Australia and Japan. While not a formal military alliance, it serves as a mechanism for cooperation on economic and security issues in the Indo-Pacific. The Quad has grown in prominence and scope as a counterbalance to China’s expanding power and influence in the region.

Only five years ago, Trump addressed a massive rally titled “Namaste Trump!” in Ahmedabad, on his first visit to India as U.S. president, as bilateral ties and trade soared, and the American leader’s personal bonhomie with Prime Minister Narendra Modi was on public display. By June that year, relations with China, on the other hand, came crashing down. 20 Indian soldiers were killed in clashes with Chinese troops in Galwan Valley in the Ladakh region. India banned more than 200 Chinese apps, including TikTok, and Indian and Chinese troops lined up along their disputed border in an eyeball-to-eyeball standoff. New Delhi also expanded defense and strategic cooperation with the U.S. and the Quad.

However, things have started to change during the summer months. As recently as May this year, India treated China as its primary adversary, after Pakistan used Chinese defense systems during its four-day war with India after a deadly attack in Indian-administered Kashmir. But Trump’s tariff wars, especially against India, which has been slapped with a 50% duty on its imports, and rapid geopolitical shifts have led to a thaw in New Delhi’s relations with Beijing. It seems that Trump is risking to undo decades of diplomatic and strategic gains foundational to its influence in Asia, home to more than 60 percent of the world’s population.

Recently, Prime Minister Modi sat down with China’s top diplomat, Foreign Minister Wang Yi, as he hailed “respect for each other’s interests and sensitiveness” and “steady progress” in bilateral relations. On his two-day visit to New Delhi, Wang also met with Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar and National Security Adviser Ajit Doval to discuss the countries’ disputed border in the Himalayan mountains. China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the countries have entered a “steady development track” and should “trust and support” each other. In their meetings, both sides announced confidence-building and practical measures such as resumption of direct flights, easier visa processes and border trade facilitation. In June, Beijing allowed pilgrims from India to visit holy sites in Tibet. The two countries also agreed to explore an early harvest settlement of parts of their long, contested border, which is the biggest source of historical tensions between them, including a war they fought in 1962.

Modi also formally accepted an invitation from Chinese President Xi Jinping to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Tianjin, a regional grouping led by China and Russia that many analysts view as aimed at countering U.S. influence in Asia scheduled for August 31 – September 1. It will be Modi’s first visit to China in more than seven years.

Trump’s policies on tariffs and favorable approach towards New Delhi’s arch-rival Pakistan have left India with little choice but to reduce the number of adversaries, including China. The U.S. has twice hosted Pakistan’s army chief, Asim Munir, this year, including for an unprecedented White House meeting with Trump.

Recently, Trump imposed an additional 25% tariff on top of another 25% on India’s goods, citing its continued imports of Russian oil. He has not imposed such tariffs against China, the largest buyer of Russian crude. Quite a bizarre move frankly as these tariffs are causing a geopolitical realignment in Asia. Political and economic experts also noted that if India-China ties were to get warmer, that could soften the blow of US tariffs for both. With Washington raising barriers on key Indian exports, access to Chinese markets, smoother cross-border trade and collaborative supply chain networks would help New Delhi reduce its reliance on the U.S. market.

In 2024-25, India recorded a trade deficit of $99.2bn with China, backed by a surge in imports of electronic goods. Beijing is India’s largest trading partner after the U.S., yet, India’s trade deficit with China is roughly double that with the US. China is attempting to woo India and has indicated that it will provide greater market access for Indian goods. For China, winning India over would also be a major strategic gain for its influence in the Asia Pacific.

Since the George W Bush presidency, India has been framed in Washington as a democratic counterweight to China. Barack Obama’s pivot to Asia gave New Delhi a central role in balancing Beijing’s rise that only grew sharper with the creation of the Quad. For the US, the Quad became a centerpiece of its Asia Pacific strategy, steering billions of dollars into Asia Pacific infrastructure, supply chain resilience and critical technologies. Experts noted that the Quad allowed the U.S. to project influence without relying solely on formal alliances, while still embedding New Delhi in a cooperative security and economic framework.

Since the Cold War era, New Delhi has pursued a foreign policy premised on strategic autonomy, it will partner with different countries on specific issues, but will not join any military alliance and will not ideologically position itself in a bloc against other major powers. Still, in Washington, the underlying assumption was that closer US-India ties, coupled with historical distrust between New Delhi and Beijing, would turn India into a critical pillar against China. To keep India on board, successive US administrations steered clear of pressuring New Delhi too much over its traditional friendship with Moscow, a major weapons supplier to the South Asian nation over the past half-century. That policy continued during Russia’s war on Ukraine, and the U.S., in fact, encouraged India to buy Russian oil that Western nations were boycotting, to keep global crude prices under check. Now, Trump is upending that equation and wants India to formally pick a side. This is likely a mistake as India might chose to build deeper ties with China and Russia and other BRICS members.