Why the election in Armenia matters
Armenia is a landlocked country in the Armenian highlands of West Asia. It is a part of the Caucasus region and is bordered by Turkey to the west, Georgia to the north, Azerbaijan to the east, and Iran and the Azerbaijani exclave of Nakhchivan to the south. Yerevan is the capital, largest city and financial center. The population is around three million.
With a decisive victory in the June 7th parliamentary election, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan now has to deliver on his promises, including a foreign policy reset. While the results appear to offer a broad endorsement of Pashinyan’s efforts to reduce Armenia’s dependence on Russia by building ties with the U.S. and the EU, they may muddle efforts to finalize a peace agreement with Azerbaijan.
Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party won just under 50% of the vote and appears set to win about 64 seats in the 105-seat National Assembly. A pair of pro-Russian parties, Strong Armenia and the Armenia Alliance, netted about 29 and 12 seats respectively. Crucially, Civil Contract’s electoral results mean the party’s seat allotment falls short of the two-thirds majority it needs to call a referendum on a new constitution, which is seen as a key element in completing a peace deal with Azerbaijan.
Strong Armenia, financed by Armenian-Russian oligarch Samvel Karapetyan, and the Armenia Alliance, led by former President Robert Kocharyan, based their election campaigns on trashing Pashinyan’s peace deal framework and casting the prime minister as Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s stooge. Aliyev has conditioned the finalization of the peace deal, initialed last August in Washington, on Armenia amending its constitution to expressly renounce any territorial claim on Nagorno Karabakh, which Azerbaijan reconquered in 2023. The current Armenian constitution references the country’s 1991 declaration of independence, which characterizes Karabakh as a historical part of Armenia. During the Soviet era, Karabakh had the status of an autonomous republic within Azerbaijan.
With a constitutional referendum in limbo, Armenia and Azerbaijan will have to focus on smaller steps to maintain momentum toward a durable peace. Pashinyan ran an energetic, upbeat campaign across the country and on social media. His central argument was that making peace with Azerbaijan, normalizing relations with Turkey and building ties with the West are all crucial to economic prosperity. The election, which saw strong turnout of nearly 59% percent, offered strong backing for Pashinyan. Many Armenians, even if still broadly supportive of good relations with Russia, have felt let down by Russia’s failure to fulfill treaty obligations to help Armenia during the Second Karabakh War, which resulted in Azerbaijan’s reconquest of Karabakh.
EU officials and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio were quick to congratulate Pashinyan. But the election campaign saw Pashinyan pull a few moves that cast shade on his democratic credentials. His chief rival, Karapetyan, fought the campaign from house arrest on charges that he called for the seizure of power after making critical statements about Pashinyan’s attacks on the church last summer. Money laundering charges were later added.
Civil Contract has kept the pressure on the opposition, with authorities announcing dozens of new charges against opposition activists on allegations of vote buying. Authorities also have announced tax fraud charges against Gagik Tsarukyan, the oligarch leader of the Prosperous Armenia party, which came fourth. The election seems to leave Armenian more polarized than ever. Many of those who cast ballots against Pashinyan did so with revulsion.
The election in Armenia is important because it affects not only Armenia’s domestic politics, but also regional security, relations with neighboring countries, and the balance of influence between major powers in the South Caucasus and relations with Russia and the West. Armenia has historically been closely tied to Russia through security and economic arrangements. In recent years, tensions have emerged over security concerns, while Armenia has also sought closer ties with organizations and countries in Europe and the U.S.
It seems that Armenia is actively and rapidly moving closer to Europe. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen publicly welcomed the country’s deepening alignment with the EU. The transition is taking place on several key fronts, the Armenian parliament passed an EU Integration Act, and a bill was officially approved to launch the formal process of joining the EU. The EU and Armenia have launched the visa liberalization process with the stated goal of securing a visa-free travel regime. Armenia and the EU held their first-ever bilateral summit in Yerevan, and the country hosted a major European Political Community summit. This geopolitical pivot comes as Armenia distances itself from Russia and the Moscow-led CSTO military alliance. However, a full transition to EU membership remains a long-term goal. To join the EU, Armenia will need to extensively reform its economy and democratic systems, and navigate the complex process of leaving the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union. Russia should try to work closer with Armenia and find suitable incentives for closer cooperation before Armenia starts drifting towards the EU. Russia has been slow to respond, but should act before it is too late.