Will there be peace in Ukraine?

Trump entered the White House with confidence that he would quickly end the conflict in Ukraine. It might have been too much confidence, hybris or even arrogance as the conflict is still going on and even has escalated. Maybe Ukraine and Russia want to keep going as the efforts to find peace seems limited and mostly aligned with unreasonable conditions.

Trump somehow felt that he would be able to handle the situation and that he could trust Putin. The tone has changed and now Trump is calling Putin crazy, and the administration is considering new harsher sanctions against Russia. It is somewhat difficult to understand Trump’s frustrations given that there is no ceasefire, and negotiations are only slowly progressing. Consequently, both countries keep fighting, trying to gain some ground for future negotiations.

Further sanctions against Russia will likely have limited impact just like existing sanctions have showed. There is also a way around sanctions and Russia has also successfully managed to pivot away from the European market to other markets, primarily in Asia. The only way to have a significant impact would likely be to impose sanctions on countries that trade with Russia and generate revenues for them.

Republican lawmakers are calling for crippling sanctions against Russia after their latest drone attacks on Ukraine when Russia unleashed 355 drones and nine cruise missiles overnight, making it the biggest aerial bombardment in the conflict to date. As a result, senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina is co-sponsoring a bipartisan bill to impose harsh sanctions and tariffs on Russia and its allies.

Another option to sanctions would be to increase U.S. financial and military aid to Ukraine. Republicans state that the U.S. and allies must arm Ukraine to the teeth, sanction Russia to the max and confiscate Russian overseas assets. Recently, European leaders hit Russia with sanctions over Putin’s refusal to accept a U.S.-backed ceasefire deal. Trump refused to join with more sanctions but said that could happen in the future. Secretary of state Marco Rubio defended the sanctions strategy as a tactic to keep Russia at the negotiation table. However, Congress is starting to take matters into its own hands, with 81 senators pledging their support for a bill to impose stricter sanctions against Russian as well as a 500% tariff on imported goods from countries that buy Russian oil, gas and other products.

It might be easy to blame Russia, but Ukraine is not forthcoming in the peace negotiations either. They still demand Crimea, something that is totally unrealistic as Crimea is historically Russian and is held be Russia. Ukraine also demands that Russia should leave the eastern parts of Ukraine. They seem to forget that Russia is trying to safeguard the Russian-speaking parts of Ukraine after years of Ukrainian harassment and increased Nazification. The best solution would likely be if the Russian-speaking parts would join Russia, and the rest of the country to Ukraine. Why not? Ukraine would not join NATO, but would be able to join the European Union. Ukraine’s president Zelensky is still demanding that all eastern parts including Crimea should belong to Ukraine which leads to the question if Ukraine actually wants peace. In order to achieve peace, they will have to give up some land and move on, there is no doubt about that.

In response to the recent Russian attacks, German chancellor Friedrich Merz said that the UK, France, Germany and the U.S. agreed to lift all restrictions on Ukraine’s use of long-range weapons supplied by the Western allies. Previously, Kyiv had been restricted to only attacking Russian military targets in occupied Ukrainian territories, with few exceptions. As there is no ceasefire in place, there might be a summer escalation and both countries are trying to buy time to conquer as much territory as possible.

Russia has mentioned that it will not accept any concessions in the peace talks, claiming the conflict will only end if it is allowed to keep all the land currently under Russia. This would be about 20% of the Ukrainian territory with the Russian army continuing to make slow but steady progress across the frontlines.

There is a sense that Trump is losing his patience. This could be a problem for Russia as more sanctions could follow and, more problematic, more funds and more advanced U.S. military equipment could make its way to Ukraine. The situation could easily escalate with more U.S. involvement and Russia under pressure in Ukraine and economically in Russia.

The countries are at a crossroad and both Ukraine and Russia need to step up if they want peace. Ukraine will have to make some sacrifices to secure peace and Russia will have to want sustainable peace. Will there be peace in Ukraine in 2025? Despite all headwinds, it is likely that there actually will be peace at some point later this summer or fall. It is meant to be.