Key swing states
The more than 90 electoral votes across seven swing states are expected to be deciding in the White House race. In most states this November, the presidential candidate who snags the winner’s share of electoral votes is unlikely to be a surprise. For voters in New York, California, Massachusetts and more than 40 other states, the winner is obvious. But across seven swing states, stretching from the desert Southwest to the Upper Midwest and back down into the South, the outcome remains very much in play, and the 93 votes up for grabs are likely to decide who ultimately ends up in the White House come January. Both Harris and Trump have made swing states a priority of their campaigns, targeting them with visits and rallies as the election season steams toward November 5th.
There are seven swing states to watch for the 2024 election. Arizona 11 electoral votes, Georgia 16 votes, Michigan 15 votes, Nevada 6 votes, North Carolina 16 votes, Pennsylvania 19 votes, and Wisconsin 10 electoral votes.
Arizona, The Grand Canyon State swinging from a Trump victory in 2016 to a narrow Biden win in 2020 bucked a decades long trend, as a Republican candidate had won the state in every other presidential election this century. Arizona’s battleground status is a testament to its changing demographics, and immigration, always a polarizing issue, but especially so in 2024, is a major talking point in the border state this year. In addition to immigration, Arizona has also hosted a bitter row over abortion access, after state republicans tried unsuccessfully to reinstate a 160-year-old near-total ban on terminating pregnancies. Likely winner is Trump.
Georgia is another example of how the group of swing states can vary. Biden’s major victory there in 2020 marked the first time a Democratic presidential candidate had won the Peach State since Bill Clinton in 1992. Black voter turnout and enthusiasm in 2020 played an important role in Biden’s win, and the voting bloc again could prove pivotal in November. A third of Georgia’s population is African-American, one of the country’s largest proportions of black residents, and it is believed that this demographic was instrumental in Mr Biden flipping the state in 2020. Some disillusionment with Biden had been reported among black voters, but the Harris campaign hopes to animate this constituency. Likely winner is Trump.
Michigan, The Great Lakes State has almost always gone Democratic in recent decades but is also no stranger to being a battleground. It is one of three states along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that formed a blue wall for Biden in 2020, but Trump won each state over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in 2016. Recent survey data indicates that the economy is of utmost importance to Michigan voters, and the state’s working class is a key group for both candidates to win over. Despite backing Biden in 2020, it has become symbolic of a nationwide backlash over the president’s support for Israel’s genocide during that country’s war in Gaza. During Michigan’s democratic primary contest in February, more than 100,000 voters chose the “uncommitted” option on their ballots, part of a campaign mounted by activists who want the U.S. government to halt its military aid to Israel. Notably, Michigan has the country’s largest proportion of Arab-Americans, a demographic whose support for Biden was in jeopardy. But Harris is even more far-left and has taken a harder tone on Israel, and some Gaza protesters hope she will be more sympathetic to their cause. Likely winner is Harris.
The fact that Nevada has the lowest number of electoral votes among the seven swing states should not minimize its importance in the presidential election. Biden’s 2020 win marked the fourth consecutive victory by Democratic candidates in the Silver State, but the margin was relatively small that year and in 2016, when Clinton won it. Though it’s fairly close to the southern border and more than 30% of its relatively diverse population is Hispanic, polling indicates the economy tops immigration as a key election issue in the state. At 5.1%, the state has the highest unemployment rate in the country, after California and the District of Columbia, according to the latest US government statistics. If Trump comes to power again, he has vowed a return to an agenda of lower taxes across the board, and fewer regulations. Nevada voted Democrat in the last election, but its post-Covid recovery has been slower than elsewhere. Likely winner is Harris.
North Carolina may lean Republican, but it is still a definite swing state. Trump won North Carolina by just 1.3 percentage points in 2020. Before he exited the race, Biden made the state the last stop on a post-State of the Union tour of swing states, and Democrats hope North Carolina will prove to be the Georgia of 2024. The state also could be a crucial pickup for Harris should other battlegrounds side with Trump. Likely winner is Trump.
Pennsylvania, The Keystone State clinched the blue wall, and the presidency, for Biden, its native son, in 2020. Trump’s win there in 2016, however, snapped a streak of Democratic candidates carrying the state, and Biden only won by 1.2 percentage points four years ago. Its 19 electoral votes amount to the fifth-most overall and the highest number among swing states. Likely winner is Harris.
Wisconsin was once considered a reliably blue Rust Belt state until Trump eked out a victory there in 2016 and cemented its status as a battleground. Biden then flipped the script with his own narrow Badger State victory over the former president in 2020. Both of the main candidates have spent ample time there in 2024, Milwaukee hosted the Republican National Convention, for example, demonstrating the value of Wisconsin’s 10 electoral votes. Likely winner is Trump.
With our predictions of the 93 swing states electoral votes, Trump will win 53 votes, Harris 40. The race is too close to call, but based on this analysis, the three main states that will decide the presidential race are Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, all won by Trump in 2016, all won by Biden in 2020.