Trump’s revised China policy

The U.S. pivot from Europe to Asia has been ongoing since Obama and is increasing in significance. The fundamental idea has been to reassert U.S. presence in Asia, balance China’s growing economic and military power and strengthen alliances with Japan, South Korea and the Philippines. During Trump’s first presidency the relationship with China deteriorated, tariff wars occurred and tension increased. Biden continued the pivot to Asia and like Trump, Biden officials saw China as the main long-term rival, or adversary, not a partner, and operated with a strategy of competitive coexistence. As Trump won again in 2024, the tone had shifted slightly and the White House now openly saw China as an adversary and selected a more aggressive stance and policy under the America First agenda. Trump’s China policy was defined by confrontation, unilateral pressure, and economic nationalism. Trump viewed China as exploiting global trade rules, stealing intellectual property and undermining U.S. manufacturing. The administration’s goal was to force China to change behavior using pressure such as trade war. Trump began the shift toward separating the two economies and encouraged companies to move supply chains out of China and restricted Chinese investment in sensitive U.S. sectors. He also increased arms sales to Taiwan, took a tougher stance in the South China Sea and had a more openly confrontational tone toward Beijing.

However, the situation appeared the change earlier this year as Trump’s continued threats were shut down by China by limiting export of rare earth minerals. They are a group of 17 metals that are crucial for modern technology, such as production of smartphones, laptops, TVs, headphones, microphones, wind turbines, electric vehicles, solar panels, MRI machines, industrial machinery, fighter jets, missiles and precision weapons, satellites, petroleum refining and the list can go on. Production is heavily concentrated in China and quickly Trump’s rhetoric changed and the current situation can be seen as a state of trade truce. Trump is going to China in mid-May and the following topics are in the forefront: trade tensions and tariffs, access to critical rare earths, Taiwan and security issues and the overall U.S. focus seems to be to stabilize U.S.–China relations.

It seems that Trump is increasingly eager to work with China and move away from his rhetoric of adversary and China being the top security threat facing the U.S. The recent tone has been more conciliatory. Trump seems to be moving away from his previous aggressive stance and is trying to find a new policy based on cooperation. Trump did not even mention China in his State of the Union speech. The U.S. wants to close the trade deficit and is asking China to buy U.S. soybeans, Boeing aircraft and American energy products and hope to reach significant trade deals in the mid-May meeting. It appears that China has the upper hand, with a larger domestic market, rare earth minerals and a diverse global supply chain. The U.S. is still dependent on China and this is clearly an advantage for China.

The White House recently told the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency to not explicitly mention China in its threat bulletins that inform the private sector about new, high-risk hacker campaigns. China-linked hacks have often been the focus of these bulletins. The resulting paralysis has contributed to large-scale departures of staff working on China matters in multiple Commerce Department offices. A few months ago, the Trump administration decided to punt on tariffs for legacy semiconductors, critical minerals and other key import goods from China. The Commerce Department has eight open investigations that could result in tariffs on sectors from critical minerals to industrial robots where it has wither delayed a decision or has not taken any action. A White House official said the administration is taking a nuanced approach to reshoring industries critical to national and economic security. The conflicted approach has led to some confusion. In February, the Pentagon added Chinese technology heavyweight Alibaba to the blacklist of Chinese military contractors, and immediately retracted it. It has not yet been rereleased. In a recent Trump speech in Detroit, Trump called China great and said he welcomed its factories in the U.S. as a means to create jobs while circumventing tariffs on foreign autos.

Trump has clearly changed tone as he needs China and its products. He is for closer cooperation and hope to gain export deals with China for agricultural and energy products. There is a new China policy in the White House despite the fact that China is the same authoritarian, unreliable and unpredictable country. The U.S. still understands that China cannot be trusted and they are in general up to no good.