More troubles for Trump

More polls show that the republicans are lagging in the polls heading into the November midterm elections. This is a problem for Trump as he thinks he is taking the right actions and losing the House and potentially losing the Senate would derail his MAGA agenda. The main reason for the pow poll numbers seem to be that Trump are focusing on the wrong prioritize, according to the voters. Trump has spent a lot of time on foreign matters such as the Gaza conflict, Ukraine, Venezuela, Iran, Cuba and recently he seems obsessed with Greenland.

Domestically, the main focus for Trump has been deportation and the ICE. Most Americans seems to be fine with deporting criminal illegal immigrants, but seem to be less willing to deport people who have lived her for decades, children and whole families. The shootings by ICE agents resulting in deaths for Americans have also shaken up the country and question the ICE methods. The voters are predominantly concerned about two items: affordability and employment. Both are still problematic, inflation is stubbornly high at 2.7%, and over the 2% Fed target, and the official unemployment is 4.4%, but is higher due to the cumbersome reporting required to be counted as unemployed. There are an increased number of Americans that are struggling outside the official statistics.

These two items will remain at the core of the election in November. Trump has done a better job than Joe Biden’s team with the economy, but it seems that the voters had expected more, in particular in terms of affordability. Corporations are also paying little in taxes, keep laying off people claiming artificial intelligence is making it possible to do more with less employed, but are at the same time showing record profits with CEOs and senior management making more than ever. This is not acceptable for most Americans. As a result, the new Mayor of New York City, Mamdani, who is facing a $12 billion dollar deficit primarily due to mismanagement and corruption, has raised to possibility for higher taxes of the wealthy and high taxes for corporations. The real problems are more linked to the tax system, which allows for enormous deductions, widespread corruption and then of course the fact that anyone or any company can relocate to another state at the leisure. JP Morgan Chase already employ more people in Texas than New York and then trend is similar for many of New York’s biggest and most profitable companies. This trend would likely accelerate with even higher taxes.   

It is unclear if Trump will focus more on domestic issues instead of global affairs. Trump even created a platform for global affairs after his presidency by setting up the Board of Peace. There is also an element of frustration from voters as Trump seems to have an unexpected aggressive – passive behavior. He takes tough, but the genocide in Gaza continued, killings in Iran goes on in the thousands despite Trumps promise that help is on its way, getting Greenland is becoming a weekly ramble and getting the Mexican cartels is not happening. Calling a national emergency to further put pressure of the poor population in Cuba and stepping away from Venezuela after getting Maduro and the list goes on. The behavior is the same domestically. Many republicans had expected to see at least some level of vengeance after more than 1,500 J6 protesters were quickly jailed in sham trials similar to trials in China, Bannan and Navarro were thrown in jail for contempt of Congress and the whole court system tried to jail the main opposition politician, Trump. There has been no action from the republicans or Trump. Even Hillary and Bill Clinton, contempt of Congress twice, have had no consequences and everyone who went after Trump is still free and out, criticizing Trump. It is time to find the guilty parties and bring them to justice, just as the democrats were trying to do earlier. There has also been more proof coming to light that the election 2020 actually was the biggest voter fraud in American history, but the republicans are keeping quite and seems to think that is better to move on.

Trump still have some time to correct the path or he will lose badly in the November elections. Here are the main focus areas for Trump and he show act sooner rather than later. One of the biggest drivers of poor poll numbers is public frustration with the economy. Many Americans feel prices are too high, their personal finances are not improving, housing is too expensive, and they blame the administration for weak economic conditions. Polls show Trump’s approval on the economy is very low, often below 40 %, which drags down his overall numbers. New survey data finds that confidence in Trump’s leadership skills and his overall agenda is shrinking across the electorate, including within segments of his own party, with fewer people saying they support his policies or trust his often-volatile decision-making. Some demographic groups that were important in 2024, like Hispanic/Latino voters are showing significant drops in support due to views on immigration enforcement and economic issues, contributing to a wider gap in polling. Many polls report that Trump is underwater on issues he once led on, such as immigration and border security, because of how enforcement tactics have played out in public opinion. This matters because these issues were central to his electoral strategy. Beyond policy, some polling respondents cite concerns about Trump’s demeanor, communication style, and personal behavior, including reactions to unfavorable polls and rhetoric, as factors in their disapproval. This will likely be difficult to change given his personality.

So, it is time to act on the economy and stop being aggressive-passive. It will be difficult for the republicans to turn it around, but they still have time and should the economy improve in 2026, there is still a chance they can be victorious in November.