Why the shooting in DC matters

Authorities are continuing to work to find a motive of an Afghan man who shot two National Guard members near the White House last week. The National Guard was called in to the nation’s capital a few months ago to deal with the out-of-control crime rate in Washington DC, to clean up homelessness and to safeguard the city. Since they arrived, crime has significantly gone down. The recent shooting is not changing the effort to clean up the country’s crime-ridden cities. The shooter, Rahmanullah Lakanwal, 29, from Afghanistan, is facing charges including first-degree murder of Specialist Sarah Beckstrom, 20, and critically wounding Staff Sgt. Andrew Wolfe, 24, both of the West Virginia National Guard. Jeanine Pirro, the U.S. attorney in Washington, said the suspect had driven from Washington state to launch an ambush-style attack with a .357 Smith & Wesson revolver.

The Associated Press reported that Lakanwal had been unraveling in the years since he came to the U.S. after previously working with U.S forces in Afghanistan, struggling to assimilate or hold down a steady job. The report cited emails sent by a community member, revealing concerns about Lakanwal’s mental health and behavior long before Wednesday’s shooting. Following the shooting, the Trump administration has reined in immigration, halting all asylum decisions and pausing the issuing of visas for people traveling on Afghan passports. The Trump administration has ordered an additional 500 members to the nation’s capital.

Lakanwal had worked with the U.S. government in Afghanistan, including with the CIA. He entered the U.S. in 2021 through Operation Allies Welcome, a Biden-era program that evacuated and resettled tens of thousands of Afghans after the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. He applied for asylum during the Biden administration and was granted it in April this year by the Trump administration. Lakanwal resettled in Bellingham, Washington, with his wife and their five young sons. The program has been criticized by Trump and other Republicans over what they argue are gaps in the screening process and the speed of admissions.

Trump said that this attack underscores the single greatest national security threat facing our nation. The last administration let in 20 million unknown and unfettered foreigners from all over the world, from places that you don’t want to even know about. No country can tolerate such a risk to our very survival. Trump has branded the shooting a terrorist attack and criticized the Biden administration for allowing Afghans who worked with U.S. forces into the country, 

Joseph Edlow, the director of U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, said that asylum decisions will be paused until we can ensure that every alien is vetted and screened to the maximum degree possible.

There will be some consequences from the shooting in Washington DC. Political & policy fallout. Federal officials and politicians are revisiting asylum and refugee vetting procedures and there will be calls for tougher security & expanded deployments. The shooting intensifies debate about whether it is appropriate to use the National Guard in policing roles and many point out that Guard members lack traditional police training/authority.

In terms of longer-term implications, there will be a possible policy shifts on asylum and refugee vetting with U.S. immigration policy and resettlement practices becoming more restrictive. There is also a risk of further violence or radicalization. High-visibility deployments and politically charged backlash might inflame tensions, potentially increasing risk of further violence, extremist recruitment, or social unrest. If Trump would go ahead with deployment of the National Guard in high crime cities like Baltimore, New Orleans, Chicago, San Franscico, all democratically run cities, they might become targets for more attacks.

The immediate impact is a more restrictive immigration policy and likely a higher intensity of deportation of illegal immigrants. The Trump administration will use the even in DC to make immigration laws even tougher and the goal is no or minimal immigration combined with a high level of deportation.